'The Economist' Looks At Water Wars: What, No Ground Water?

The current (3 May 2008) issue of The Economist contains a piece on 'Streams of blood, or streams of peace', about the potential for nations going to war over water. It's a good article, examining a number of river basins around the world with the potential for conflict.

This map shows the Nile, Tigris-Euphrates, and Jordan River Basins, three of the 263 transboundary river basins where cooperation exists but where conflict could arise.

Some of the work in cited in the article has been done by my colleagues at Oregon State University (OSU). We have a remarkable database, the Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database (TFDD), a resource for the entire world.

My friend and colleague at Oregon State University, Aaron Wolf, creator of the TFDD and arguably the world's expert on water conflict, contends that the only documented instance of two states going to war solely over water involved two Mesopotamian city-states about 4,500 years ago.

One interesting story he tells involves Turkey's refusal to "shut off" river water to Iraq during the first Gulf War, despite the Americans' pleas. The Turks let the USA use bases, conduct overflights and troop movements for the first Iraq War, but drew the line at using water as a weapon.

But the article, like many others on the topic, conveniently neglects to mention ground water. Yet there are aquifer systems that could foment conflict; in fact, there are about 240 aquifer systems that underlie two or more nations.

There are programs underway to delineate these aquifers.The ISARM (International Shared Aquifer Resource Management) project is one, as is WHYMAP (World-wide Hydrogeological Mapping and Assessment Programme).

The world map shows transboundary aquifers; it is available from the WHYMAP WWW site.

The Guarani aquifer of South America, which may be the largest body of unfrozen fresh water in the world, has the potential for generating conflict among Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay.

Aquifers underlying North Africa have similar conflict potential. Here in North America, the USA shares ground water basins with both Canada and Mexico, so conflict is a possibility.

It's all too easy to forget about ground water; after all, out of sight, out of mind. But we must remember that when it comes to unfrozen water, fresh ground water far exceeds fresh surface water. It's not even close; one estimate puts the amount at 100x more.

That huge reservoir of subsurface water could figure prominently in any future water wars.

"War is the unfolding of miscalculations." -- Barbara Tuchman

Comments

[Todd]

The wars over groundwater have already been documented in Africa, just at a smaller scale than nation to nation (unless one considers a tribe or clan a nation) as outlined by the Washington Post:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/13/AR2006041302116.html

(note: long URL may require cutting and pasting into your browser, but it was *hot* as of this posting)

[Jonathan Shannon]

Drought in Ethiopia has strained natural resources inevitably lead to strained relations between communities that are competing for the same dwindling supply of water and pasture land.

In June 2006, open conflict erupted in the Borena zone in southern Ethiopia between the Borena and the Guji when the Guji laid claim to land that had long belonged to the Borena.

http://www.indypendent.org/2008/04/25/drought-spurs-resource-wars/

As reported on Indypendent.org, NYC's independent media center and part of the global Indy Media Network.