The Golan Gamble: Middle East Peace...Or Not?

Okay, here's a good one: Turkey provides Israel, the Palestinian Authority, Lebanon, Jordan, and Syria with just about all the water they could possibly use, Israel withdraws from the Golan Heights, and everybody is happy!

Someone's been smoking too much of the evil weed, right? Actually, maybe not.

Check out this story from the Jerusalem Report in the 5 June 2008 Jerusalem Post.

The plan would provide water in the amount of 2 - 3 billion cubic meters ( 1.6 - 2.4 million acre-feet) per year from the Ceyhan and Seyhan Rivers of Turkey.The plan was originally proposed by Turkey in the 1980s, but was shelved when Turkish-Syrian relations soured in the 1990s.  

From the article by Leslie Susser:

The water would be channeled from Turkey, which enjoys a huge water surplus, in underground pipes and overland canals through western Syria to the southern slopes of Mount Hermon, where it would flow into a dam along the length of the northern stretch of a new Israeli-Syrian border, providing hydro-electric power and serving as a major obstacle against a tank blitz from the Golan Heights, which would be returned to Syria as part of the projected peace package. Some of the water en route would be diverted to Lebanon and water from the dam channeled to Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority.

"Everybody wins," says the plan's author, water engineer Boaz Wachtel, an Israeli fellow at the Washington-based Freedom House, which promotes democracy, peace and human rights. "The Arabs and Israelis get water and stability, the Turks hard currency and enhanced international status."

But this is not a done deal. Again, from the article:

But the dream of peace with Syria with all its attendant benefits - Syria in the pro-Western Arab camp, freed from Iranian tutelage and no longer supporting Palestinian and Lebanese militants - is not universally shared. Israeli hawks, who oppose any withdrawal from the Golan, accuse Wachtel and Liel of living in a fantasy world - and the government of Ehud Olmert of playing dangerous games in its efforts to survive the corruption scandals engulfing the prime minister. There is, they say, no chance of Syria breaking away from the radical Iranian-led axis and handing over the Golan would simply be turning it into an Iranian forward base for attacking Israel. "All this talk about making peace and sharing water is pie in the sky," scoffs the Likud's Yisrael Katz, chairman of the Knesset's Golan caucus.

And more:

The outcome of negotiations with Syria as well as the fate of Wachtel's ambitious water scheme could depend on the results of the next Israeli election. With Olmert wobbling over corruption allegations, pundits are talking about a November ballot, with the Likud's Benjamin Netanyahu, who opposes territorial compromise with Syria, the front-runner according to public opinion polls.

Here's what Likud leader and former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu thinks of the idea. No, he's not a fan.

Ah, water - the great peacemaker! This will get interesting.

"You don't make peace with friends. You make it with very unsavory enemies." -- Yitzhak Rabin

Comments

[Maskil]

I know I’m biased, but I much prefer my idea, which is to bring desalinated water to Lake Kinneret from the Mediterranean via an underground aqueduct.

Please see my blog for an outline of the concept:

Building the wrong canal: An alternative to the Red-Dead Canal
http://blog.altneuland.info/2008/05/building-wrong-canal-alternative-to-red.html

[Michael]

Dear Maskil,

Thanks for commenting and including your blog. Very interesting.

Do you think the Turkish plan has any chance of succeeding? Seems like the politics will mitigate against it.

[Maskil]

Thanks for posting my comment. Unfortunately I also don’t hold out too many hopes for the Turkish plan. Given the history of the conflict, a plan that is entangled in dependencies (both ways) with a peace deal is off to a bad start.

To put it differently, the plan in and of itself will not drive a peace process, nor is it a suitable bargaining chip. Assuming it is a practical scheme, it may have a better chance of being realized if/when there is a peace treaty between Israel and Syria.

It is, however, certainly a bold and imaginative scheme!

[Boaz Wachtel]

Hello, Michael and good folks from Oregon.
Thanks for the posting on the Peace Canal Plan. As the author of the Peace Canal on the Golan Heights Plan, I wish to respond to the issues raised:

1. Although desalination is touted as a risk-free option, in actuality, Israel is already dependent on foreign energy sources for its desalination. The PC Plan does not suggest that any party shoul give up a drop of water. This would be in addition to existing inventories to help stabilize the water inventory of the 4 parties. Both Syria and Turkey have good reputations keeping treaties and the international guarantees that would acompany the plan plus the interest of each side in the plan's benefits assure a high level of safety.

2. The Med-Dead or Red-Dead plans to bring sea water to save the Dead Sea are enviromentally damaging and may cause irreversible damage to the mineral compostion of the lake. That is why the Jordanian and Israeli mineral extraction industries oppose the plan and prefer a potable water solution.
3. The plan could act as a catalyst to the peace process, cementing the security and water issues and providing a serious incentive for the parties to move forward.

That's all for now folks.

Give a hug to Aaron Wolf for me.

Boaz Wachtel

[Michael]

Dear Boaz,

Thank you for your detailed comment - great to hear from you.

I will give Aaron Wolf a hug for you.