The current issue (2 March 2009) of the High Country News has a revealing article by Matt Jenkins, "How Low Will It Go?". Jenkins describes the mission of Eric Kuhn, an engineer and former submariner who now runs the Colorado River Water Conservation District in western Colorado.
So what is his mission? Simple. Figure out exactly how much Colorado River water the state of Colorado really has left for future growth, which everyone knows will continue, mainly in the Front Range (Denver, Colorado Springs, Fort Collins, etc.) area.
You are no doubt wondering, "Doesn't Colorado know how much additional water it is entitled to, according to the Colorado River Compact?" Sure - it's something like 1.5 MAF, enough for maybe another 12 million new residents, which reporter Jenkins says is four times the projected increase over the next 25 years. At least that's what the water managers say is available - no sense in scaring away potential residents and businesses!
Kuhn's curiosity got the best of him, so he dug into every record, report, etc., he could find, and after months of studying and calculating, came up with a number: 150,000 AF, or 10% of the 'conventional wisdom'. That is 'wet water', as opposed to 'paper water', two curious concepts in Western water law. The former is what is actually available; the latter is what some decree, document, or compact says you have the rights to. Big difference!
Reminds me of the saying, "I'd rather be upstream with a shovel and a ditch than downstream with a decree."
The interesting thing is that the State of Colorado, during a trial, admitted that there are only about 159,000 AF actually left for future development, pretty close to Kuhn's number.
WaterWired's Take: Who knows whether Kuhn is correct, but my money's on him. It is refreshing to see a Western water manager "tell it like it is", willing to risk ostracism and criticism by those who cling to an optimistic Pollyanna mindset so that growth can continue unabated and water and land use planning and management can proceed, unhindered by reality and fueled by myopia.
If the Front Range wants to grow, there will likely have to be some ferocious water conservation measures required, as well as some purchases from a lot of senior water-rights holders. Acrimony, anyone?
And we haven't even discussed potential oil-shale development in western Colorado - 400,000 AF per year?
Perhaps it's time to take Ray Walker seriously.
“The laughter of fools has always been the reward of any man who comes up with a new thought.” -- Stephen Lister (thanks to Ray Walker, via Aguanomics)
Hi, David.
Wishful thinking, but one can dream.
I guess I was wrong about PM getting the BuRec Commissioner's job. She was really angling for Secretary of the Interior. BuRec Commissioner probably would've have been a step down instead of a step up!
Sorry I beat you to Cr!key Creek - John Fleck gave me a heads up.
Posted by: Michael | Thursday, 05 March 2009 at 10:24 AM
Yay! Now, can he go have a chat with Mulroy?
Posted by: David Zetland | Wednesday, 04 March 2009 at 08:55 AM