Ahhh...modeling! I can still recall when this was about all I did, although the memories are getting increasingly hazier. But I do remember this wonderful quote:
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful." - George E.P. Box
My models were wrong and not useful. But Lovelock's quote (at the bottom) really says it all.
Now, here is the important stuff.
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Tim Smith, a participant in the Sustainable Water Resources Roundtable, sent these publications around. Abstracts are beneath each one. Ken Reid forwarded these to me.
If the links don't work, go here.
Enjoy!
1) Osuna, Andrea Rodriguez, Adaptation Funding to Climate Change under the Global Environment Facility: An Analysis of Bolivia’s Adaptation Projects, Uppsala University, 2010
Adaptation finance has recently become an essential component to address international climate change impacts. The Global Environment Facility (GEF) is the main mechanism providing financial adaptation assistance from developed to developing countries. Under this mechanism, Bolivia figures as the country with more projects than any other eligible country, giving the impression that Bolivia receives favorable treatment when resources are allocated. This study analyzes the process by which Bolivia receives funding for adaptation projects using the principle of good governance and elements of accountability, fairness and effectiveness in the allocation of resources, to understand how such adaptation projects are granted.
2) Rezaian, Sahar, et al, Water Consumption Management using WEAP&Conceptual Models, Case Study: Golestan Province, Iran, 2011 2nd International Conference on Environmental Science and Development, Singapore
Iran is located among the world’s arid and semiarid lands climatically, so its water consumption management is of vital importance. Golestan province as one of the important poles of Iran’s farming and agricultural products is not excluded and in terms of water supply has not a desirable situation. Due to over pumping and reduction in precipitation, groundwater reserves have not been in satisfactory condition. Exploitation of surface water does not conform to any management principle as well. On the other hand due to population growth, development of agricultural and industrial activities, as well as decreasing trend of water resources, setting up a principled approach for water consumption is an undeniable fact. In this study, water supply sources were identified in various parts of the region. Consequently, the role of major water consumption sections in the quantitative change of water resources was determined. Finally the obtained results were used to project the conceptual model for quantitative changes of water resources in order to achieve sustainable development in different parts of this province. The result of the conceptual model shows that about 371.51million cubic meters of water in Golestan province is lost due to lack of adequate reserves. On the other hand, reviews of different management scenarios indicated that the problem of water shortages in this province cannot be resolved alone with construction of new dams. Meanwhile a modified consumption pattern is considered as an effective and complementary step in sustainable water consumption management.
3) Kragt, Marit E., et al, How Integrative Modeling Can Break Down Disciplinary Silos, University of Western Australia, Working Paper 1121, Crawley, Australia, 2011
Effective management of environmental systems requires assessments of multiple (physical, ecological, and socio-economic) issues and integration of knowledge from various disciplinary experts. Integrative research faces widely acknowledged theoretical and practical challenges. In this paper, we argue that model development aimed at integrating multidisciplinary inputs can overcome many of these difficulties. Environmental models can act as a shared goal and provide a framework for successful integrative research. Modellers often have the more generalist background and overarching perspective required to develop a shared understanding of a system. Modellers are therefore well-placed to facilitate integrative processes. We discuss the challenges of integrative research and discuss how modellers, and model development, can facilitate successful integration through: definition of common research questions and objectives; conceptual modelling; identification of project participants; aligning terminologies; and stressing the importance of communication and trust.
These documents will also be placed on the 2011 Reports and Publications page of the Sustainable Water Resources site.
"No one who has experienced the intense involvement of computer modeling would deny that the temptation exists to use any data input that will enable one to continue playing what is perhaps the ultimate game of solitaire." - James Lovelock
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