On 17 January, 19 January, 21 January and 22 January I featured papers from UCOWR's Journal of Contemporary Water Research and Education's (JCWRE) special issue on Water and International Security. Here is the Introduction by issue editor Dr. David Kreamer.
Today I have another one: Water Modeling Technologies: A Key to Unlocking Water Conflict in the Middle East? by Al-Sharif Nasser Bin Nasser.
You'll be able to read Bin Nasser's paper and download a PDF free of charge here.
Abstract
Several cases of armed conflict in the Middle East have a root cause in competition over resources, with water being the focus of conflict. Water will increasingly become a critical trigger for future conflict as supplies become scarcer and as population pressures continue to grow. With existing talks between riparian countries surrounding the Jordan River and the Tigris-Euphrates Basins either being absent or ineffective, there is a pressing need to develop a new approach to resolve water issues in the Middle East. In this context, water modeling technologies may offer a new and unique tool for regional discussions.
What struck me was his statement (p. 14, first paragraph, right column):
The use of modeling and simulation technologies has been a hitherto overlooked concept in Middle East hydro-politics.
I am incredulous. What with all the mediation and study of Middle Eastern hydropolitics no one has thought to try system dynamics-based collaborative modeling (CM; aka shared vision planning or mediated modeling)? But Bin Nasser should know; he's on the ground there.
I'm thinking that perhaps CM has been tried but failed (a distinct possibility) and that no one has bothered to report on a method that failed. Who wants to write a paper or report about failure? There is nothing wrong with that - it would certainly help others - but you don't get gold stars or tenure for writing about a failed approach (although someone else might).
When I was working in the South Caucasus' Kura-Araks Basin I thought that CM might be helpful. I even went so far as to have a student of mine, Alyssa Neir, conduct a two-day workshop on SD modeling. But we did not get beyond that phase, for reasons unrelated to conflict.
Here is some previous information on collaborative modeling: an executive summary from an AWRA conference I chaired in JUne 2011 and a detailed CM handout. The work of Suzanne Pierce in this JCWRE issue might be appropriate.
Seems like something that needs to be tried. What do we have to lose?
The statement to which you were incredulous is not entirely accurate, based on both my personal experience and a quick Google search.
Namely, the Stockholm Environment Institute's Water Evaluation and Planning model has been used as a collaborative platform in the Jordan basin (see this paper that came out of that work: http://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/3/3/718/pdf)
Also, they have semi-regular WEAP workshops that try and gather folks from all over the region, including both Israeli and Arab participants; see this announcement from 2010: http://www.weap21.org/index.asp?action=9&read=2116&fID=30
Just my two cents :)
Posted by: Pat Keys | Wednesday, 23 January 2013 at 12:03 PM