WaterWired

Earth to Copenhagen: Include Water in Climate Change Text

Nothing like good news from the international climate change community. Turns out that the CC mavens at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in Barcelona have decided to delete clear references to water in the latest document, Non-Paper 31.  Don't you love that name? I guess it was a paper produced by non-intelligent people.

Here is some language from the Global Water Partnership press release announcing this omission:

To a large extent, the global climate crisis is a global water crisis. Yet the latest iteration of the negotiating text on adaptation, the so-called Non-Paper 31, has deleted any clear references to water and its management as a vital consideration for climate change adaptation. This is despite increasing mobilisation by the water community to call for a strong outcome on water from Copenhagen.

Here is the GWP's entire press release:

Download 091103_WaterDay_press_release

Let's hope reason prevails before Copenhagen.

"Nature abhors a moron" -- Unknown

Richard S. Lindzen: Deconstructing Global Warming

Ken Reid of AWRA sent this pdf of a talk given last week by MIT Professor Richard S. Lindzen, Deconstructing Global Warming:

Download Lindzen-talk-pdf

Here is Dr. Lindzen on climate feedback.

I'll also post these URLs provided by colleague Ari Michelsen so you can get your fill.

Only In It For The Gold - Lindzen diatribe

 

Lindzen: point by point rebuttal.

 

Climate change skeptics/common claims and rebuttal.

 

Here's a compilation of responses to climate change skeptics one of my OSU colleagues calls 'the best he's ever seen."

 

I'm exhausted already! 

"The college idealists who fill the ranks of the environmental movement seem willing to do absolutely anything to save the biosphere, except take science courses and learn something about it." — P.J. O'Rourke

Lecture: Hydrology in an Era of Global Change

The 2008 Robert E. Horton Lecture was given by Dr. Dennis P. Lettenmaier of the University of Washington last December at the American Geophysical Union meeting.

Here's the blurb:

In this lecture Dr. Lettenmaier traces the history of how hydrologists and meteorologists have helped us to understand the water cycle. As hydrology moves from a qualitative to quantitative science, some are concerned about whether we will be able to answer questions essential to our nation and our world in this era of global change. Lettenmaier uses a projection of the water resources at the Colorado River Basin as a key example of this concern.

The lecture is named in honor of Robert E. Horton, considered by some to be the father of modern hydrology (Hortonian theory of infiltration and runoff).

Enjoy!

IFPRI Report: Climate Change Impact on Agriculture and Costs of Adaptation

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) produces some very good reports that don't always get read by those who should read them. Why? We spend too much time in our own little silos thinking, "I'm a WaterWonk, what do I care about food?" Well, duhhhh..... And I'm as guilty as the next person, and I should know better.

One example is its recent brief report, Climate Change: Impact on Agriculture and Costs of Adaptation.

Download a free copy.

From the report's WWW site:

The unimpeded growth of greenhouse gas emissions is raising the earth’s temperature. The consequences include melting glaciers, more precipitation, more and more extreme weather events, and shifting seasons. The accelerating pace of climate change, combined with global population and income growth, threatens food security everywhere.

Agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change. Higher temperatures eventually reduce yields of desirable crops while encouraging weed and pest proliferation. Changes in precipitation patterns increase the likelihood of short-run crop failures and long-run production declines. Although there will be gains in some crops in some regions of the world, the overall impacts of climate change on agriculture are expected to be negative, threatening global food security.

Populations in the developing world, which are already vulnerable and food insecure, are likely to be the most seriously affected. In 2005, nearly half of the economically active population in developing countries—2.5 billion people—relied on agriculture for its livelihood. Today, 75 percent of the world’s poor live in rural areas.

This Food Policy Report presents research results that quantify the climate-change impacts mentioned above, assesses the consequences for food security, and estimates the investments that would offset the negative consequences for human well-being.

This analysis brings together, for the first time, detailed modeling of crop growth under climate change with insights from an extremely detailed global agriculture model, using two climate scenarios to simulate future climate. The results of the analysis suggest that agriculture and human well-being will be negatively affected by climate change:

• In developing countries, climate change will cause yield declines for the most important crops. South Asia will be particularly hard hit.
• Climate change will have varying effects on irrigated yields across regions, but irrigated yields for all crops in South Asia will experience large declines.
• Climate change will result in additional price increases for the most important agricultural crops–rice, wheat, maize, and soybeans. Higher feed prices will result in higher meat prices. As a result, climate change will reduce the growth in meat consumption slightly and cause a more substantial fall in cereals consumption.
• Calorie availability in 2050 will not only be lower than in the no–climate-change scenario—it will actually decline relative to 2000 levels throughout the developing world.
• By 2050, the decline in calorie availability will increase child malnutrition by 20 percent relative to a world with no climate change. Climate change will eliminate much of the improvement in child malnourishment levels that would occur with no climate change.
• Thus, aggressive agricultural productivity investments of US$7.1–7.3 billion are needed to raise calorie consumption enough to offset the negative impacts of climate change on the health and well-being of children.

Enjoy!

"Once during Prohibition I was forced to live for days on nothing but food and water." -- W. C. Fields

Red Snow Warning: The End of Welfare Water and the Drying of the West

Chip Ward's essay appeared in The Huffington Post a few days ago. I highly recommend it, but it's not for the faint-hearted.

Thanks to Elaine Hebard for alerting me to this.

Ward discusses the Colorado River basin:

The West is as dry as the East is wet, a vast and arid landscape of high plains and deserts broken by abrupt mountain ranges and deep canyons. Unlike eastern and midwestern America, where there are myriad rivers, streams, lakes, and giant underground lakes, or aquifers, to draw on, we depend on snowpack for about 90% of our fresh water. The Colorado River, running from its headwaters in the snow-loaded mountains of Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming, is the principal water source for those states, and downstream for Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, and southern California as well.

While being developed into a crucial water resource, the Colorado became the most dammed, piped, legislated, and litigated river in America. Its development spawned a major federal bureaucracy, the Bureau of Reclamation, as well as a hundred state agencies, water districts, and private contractors to keep it plumbed and distributed. Taken altogether, this complex infrastructure of dams, pipelines, and reservoirs proved to be the most expensive and ambitious public works project in the nation's history, but it enabled the Southwest states and southern California to boom and bloom.

The downside is that we are now dangerously close to the limits of what the Colorado River can provide, even in the very best of weather scenarios, and the weather is being neither so friendly nor cooperative these days. If Portland soon becomes as warm as Los Angeles and Seattle as warm as Sacramento, as some forecasters now predict, expect Las Vegas and Phoenix to be more like Death Valley.

If the Colorado River shut down tomorrow, there might be two, at most three, years of stored water in its massive reservoirs to keep Los Angeles, San Diego, Phoenix, Las Vegas, and dozens of other cities that depend on it alive. That margin for survival gets thinner with each passing year and with each rise in the average temperature. Imagine a day in the not so distant future when the water finally runs out in one of those cities -- a kind of slow-motion Katrina in reverse, a city not flooded but parched, baked, blistered, and abandoned. If the Colorado River system failed to deliver, the impact on the nation's agriculture and economy would be comparable to an asteroid strike.

A little more to whet your appetite:

Sure, everyone agrees that we have to change, but we in the West are fond of focusing blame on personal bad habits that waste water -- and they couldn't be more real -- rather than corporate habits that waste so much more. The fact is that we Westerners have never paid anything like what our water truly costs and we lack disincentives to waste water and incentives to conserve it. Behind all that fuss you hear from us about the damn government and how independent-minded we Westerners are, is a long history of massive dam and pipeline projects financed by the American taxpayer, featuring artificially low prices and not a few crony-run boondoggles. Call it welfare water.

You can read more of his essays here.

"Human populations in the West will also shift and dwindle, with jarring consequences for all of America, if we do not learn quickly that watersheds have limits, especially within arid and unpredictable climates." -- Chip Ward

Will the Pacific Northwest Become Drier?

Some of us in the Pacific Northwest have become smug about global warming. We have been led to believe that  "conventional wisdom"  (whatever that is) suggests that as the Pacific Northwest warms, the total amount of precipitation and runoff (streamflow) will remain about the same as it is now, but the character of both will change: more of the precipitation will occur as rain and more of the runoff will come earlier in the year as snow melts earlier. Our "conventional wisdom" is based primarily upon the results of coupled global warming - hydrologic models. 

But now the Oregonian reports the results of a new study by USFS researchers suggesting "conventional wisdom" may be incorrect. The studies that led to "conventional wisdom" were based on mean or median values of precipitation; the current study looked at the driest 25% of years since 1948 and found that runoff decreased by 30% or more in most stream and by nearly 50% in some basins.

From Joe Rojas-Burke's story:

Researchers with the U.S. Forest Service looked for changes in the amount of water flowing out of mountain basins since 1948 at 43 rivers and streams across Oregon, Washington, Idaho and western Montana.

Few rivers showed significant declines in runoff until researchers isolated the driest 25 percent of years.

Then nearly three-quarters of river basins showed severe decreases in water flow. Runoff fell by 30 percent or greater in most streams, and by nearly 50 percent at some locations during dry years.

"And those are really important years," says study author Charlie Luce, a Forest Service research hydrologist in Boise.

"Those are the years that test the trees, whether they live, die, or catch on fire. Those are the years that test the fish, that test the farmers and the water managers." The journal Geophysical Research Letters published the study online Aug. 22.

Rojas-Burke reminds us that the Luce study does not prove that dry years are getting drier because of less rain and snow, just that rivers run much lower than they formerly did.

The story continues:

"It is not clear whether precipitation is decreasing, or whether water use is increasing," says Julia Jones, an associate professor in the department of forest ecosystems and society at Oregon State University. [Note: Jones is actually a professor in the Department of Geosciences.]

In the Northwest, forests consume huge amounts of water. Dense, tall stands of native Douglas firs can soak up more than 40 percent of the precipitation that falls in a river basin.

Several land use changes since the 1950s have tended to increase water use, Jones says. Fire suppression has allowed forests to expand in some basins. Clear-cutting of old growth and replanting young, fast-growing trees has increased water consumption in summer. In some watersheds, deep-rooted trees that extract more water than grasses are overtaking abandoned farm fields and pastures.

Warmer springs and falls, due to climate change, could extend the growing season of trees and shrubs -- and their water intake.

No matter the cause, if the trends are real, Jones says, the potential for water conflicts will increase.

Jones' point is a good one.

The story concludes:

"Climate models embody the theory as we understand it," Luce says. "Now we've got a new set of observations that don't quite agree with the theory. People can go out and refine the theory."

Read a copy of the abstract.

As far as I'm concerned, this story illustrates the fact that we haven't yet figured out climate change effects on water resources in the Pacific Northwest. Even if "conventional wisdom" proves correct, we'll still have problems. But with less precipitation and runoff, those problems will intensify.

"Some days I’m optimistic. And then I have my Cassandra days.” -- Philip Mote, Director, Oregon Climate Change Research Institute

September/October 2009 Southwest Hydrology: CO2 Sequestration

The new issue of Southwest Hydrology features CO2 Sequestration. As always, downloads of the entire issue or individual departments are free.

From the introduction:

The supercritical state of CO2 in the subsurface has fluid-like behavior, thus many aspects of hydrology apply to its sequestration. A good candidate storage site, often identified with the help of multi-phase flow modeling, has sufficient porosity to accommodate the volumes of CO2 being injected and low-permeability caprock to prevent its escape. Monitoring through wells, geophysics, and surface measurements is used to determine if any leakage is occurring. If CO2 does escape, it could reach drinking-water aquifers and impact water quality, or it could migrate to the surface, thereby defeating the purpose of sequestration. Regulations to minimize the risks of CO2 sequestration are in development, and pilot projects to test the process are underway across the country, including in the Southwest.

Featured articles:

Opportunities for Carbon Capture and Geologic Storage, by Richard J. Myhre and Marian Stone

The Hydrology of Geologic Sequestration, Gregory Schnaar and Stephen J. Cullen

Managing the Risks of CO2 Sequestration,  Amy Hardberger and Scott Anderson

Regulating Geologic Sequestration of CO2, Patricia R. Pfeiffer and Bruce J. Kobelski

Frio Brine Pilot: The First U.S. Sequestration Test, Susan D. Hovorka

Exploring Geologic CO2 Storage in Arizona, Dennis H. Shirley, Daniel J. Collins, and John L. Boyer

Departments:

1) On the Ground

2) Government

3) Hydrofacts

4)  R & D

5) The Water Page

6) People & Companies

7) In Print and Online and Business Directory

8) Calendar

Enjoy!

"We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit." -- Aristotle

A Walk Through the Rio Grande Bosque

Emily Green reports on an informative walk through the Rio Grande bosque (riparian forest) with James Cleverly of the University of New Mexico and John Fleck of the Albuquerque Journal.

Cleverly conducts research on evapotranspiration (ET) and reports on what will happen to streamflow and groundwater levels in the area as temperatures increase. It's not pretty, although recall that increased ET in one area means increased atmospheric moisture, which could produce precipitation elsewhere.

That's why we call it the hydrologic cycle. 

Also read about some interesting climate research by my former colleague David Gutzler.

"I'm not going to lie to you, Saunders - I'm going to lie to you." -- cartoon in The New Yorker.

Environmental Research Letters: Free Papers on Groundwater Resources, Climate and Variability

Bob Teeter at the Santa Clara Valley Water District alerted me to a special issue of the open-access journal Environmental Research Letters on Groundwater Resources, Climate and Variability. Top authors such as Marios Sophocleous, T.N. Narasimhan, Tushaar Shah, and Hugo Loaiciga have contributed to this issue.

The issue is not yet complete, but you can freely download PDFs of the following papers (check later for additional papers):

Groundwater resources, climate and vulnerability, C. Isabella Bovolo, Geoff Parkin and Marios Sophocleous (editorial)

Groundwater: from mystery to management, T.N. Narasimhan

Simulated response of groundwater to predicted recharge in a semi-arid region using a scenario of modelled climate change, M.W. Toews and D.M. Allen

Long-term climatic change and sustainable ground water resources management, H.A. Loaiciga

Climate change and groundwater: India's opportunities for mitigation and adaptation, Tushaar Shah

Vulnerability to the impact of climate change on renewable groundwater resources: a global-scale assessment, Petra Doll

Enjoy!

"Groundwater has been used for domestic and irrigation needs from time immemorial. Yet its nature and occurrence have always possessed a certain mystery because water below the land surface is invisible and relatively inaccessible. The influence of this mystery lingers in some tenets that govern groundwater law." -- T.N. Narasimhan

Chile Climate Change: Clean Tech Haven?

Evan Miles sent me this article from the Clean Techies Blog. It has a provocative title, War Over Water — Climate Change & Clean Tech Opportunities in Chile. The post does not deal with water wars per se, but with opportunities for the 'clean tech' water industry because of impending water shortages.

This just struck me as a different take on the 'water wars' theme, a big deal nowadays.

"We will be entering a world where food supply becomes more and more scarce and there will be mass migrations. Anyone with an imagination can see the awful human consequences of that." -- James Lovelock

Colorado River: Another Nail in the Coffin or No Hay Problema?

Seems like the Colorado River basin can't catch a break from anyone these days. James Powell's Dead Pool painted a grim picture of a near-future Phoenix struggling with astronomical water rates and a mass exodus of Phoenicians. Tim Barnett and David Pierce, with their sophisticated computer model, further annoyed Chamber of Commerce-types with a vision of Lakes Powell (shown here, courtesy of USBR) and Mead being reduced to cat-sand repositories. Their study was recently updated (see original press release here) without much cause for optimism.

But now, the ultimate insult: from within the state of Colorado itself, more bad news.   The Denver Post's Bruce Finley reported on a University of Colorado study that predicts that all reservoirs on the river could go dry by 2057:

A new study projects that all reservoirs along the Colorado River — which provide water for 27 million people in seven states — could dry up by 2057 because of climate change and overuse.

If warming led to a 10 percent reduction in the river's flow, it would create a 25 percent chance of depletion, according to the University of Colorado research released this week. Warming resulting in a 20 percent reduction would raise the chance of depletion to 50 percent, the study found.

"In the short term, the risk is relatively low," said Balaji Rajagopalan, associate professor of civil environmental and architectural engineering at CU and lead author on the study, which was accepted for publication by the American Geophysical Union.

"But after that, the risk escalates enormously. If you do nothing, and you have no policies in place, even drastic measures such as cutting people off will not help from staving off catastrophe."

Researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Bureau of Reclamation participated in the study. Rajagopalan said the study was done in response to a 2008 University of California study that found a one-in-two chance that overuse and warming could deplete reservoirs much sooner — by 2021.

Here is more detail from a CU press release:

The research team examined the future vulnerability of the system to water supply variability coupled with projected changes in water demand. The team found that through 2026, the risk of fully depleting reservoir storage in any given year remains below 10 percent under any scenario of climate fluctuation or management alternative. During this period, the reservoir storage could even recover from its current low level, according to the researchers.

But if climate change results in a 10 percent reduction in the Colorado River's average stream flow as some recent studies predict, the chances of fully depleting reservoir storage will exceed 25 percent by 2057, according to the study. If climate change results in a 20 percent reduction, the chances of fully depleting reservoir storage will exceed 50 percent by 2057, Rajagopalan said.

"On average, drying caused by climate change would increase the risk of fully depleting reservoir storage by nearly ten times more than the risk we expect from population pressures alone," said Rajagopalan. "By mid-century this risk translates into a 50 percent chance in any given year of empty reservoirs, an enormous risk and huge water management challenge," he said.

But even under the most extensive drying scenario, threats to water supplies won't be felt immediately. "There's a tremendous storage capacity on the Colorado River that helps with the reliability of supply over periods of a just few years," said Rajagopalan.

Total storage capacity of reservoirs on the Colorado exceeds 60 million acre feet, almost 4 times the average annual flow on the river, and the two largest reservoirs -- Lake Mead and Lake Powell -- can store up to 50 million acre feet of water. As a result, the risk of full reservoir depletion will remain low through 2026, even with a 20 percent stream flow reduction induced by climate change, said Rajagopalan.

Between 2026 and 2057, the risks of fully depleting reservoir storage will increase seven-fold under the current management practices when compared with risks expected from population pressures alone. Implementing more aggressive management practices -- in which downstream releases are reduced during periods of reservoir shortages -- could lead to only a two-fold increase in risk of depleting all reservoir storage during this period, according to the study.

The magnitude of the risk will ultimately depend on the extent of climate drying and on the types of water management and conservation strategies established, according to the CU-Boulder study.

Finley reported on the reaction to the report:

Denver Water authorities questioned the conclusion that, with sharp climate change and robust population growth, all reservoirs could be depleted.

"Not true," said David Little, director of planning for Denver Water.

Little was alluding to studies showing the upper parts of the basin will become wetter.

Boy, do I feel a lot better after hearing that! For a fleeting moment, I was quite worried.

But Little did acknowledge that Denver could see climate refugees, a rarity for a water official to acknowledge:

If overuse and climate change did dry up lower basin reservoirs such as Lake Powell and Lake Mead, Denver could see an influx of people, Little said. People in California, Nevada, Arizona and New Mexico "are going to tend to migrate to places where they have water."

Should be plenty of sand available for all to stick their heads in.

"The important thing is not to get lulled into a sense of safety or security with the near-term resiliency of the Colorado River basin water supply. If we do, we're in for a rude awakening." -- Ken Nowak, CU graduate student

The Climate Change Climate Change: More Skeptical Inquirers?

Don Mahin, my first graduate student and hydrologist/engineer extraordinaire, sent me this opinion piece by Kimberley A. Strassel in the Wall Street Journal. She claims that the number of climate change - global warming -  skeptics is increasing everywhere.

Here are the first few paragraphs:

Steve Fielding recently asked the Obama administration to reassure him on the science of man-made global warming. When the administration proved unhelpful, Mr. Fielding decided to vote against climate-change legislation.

If you haven't heard of this politician, it's because he's a member of the Australian Senate. As the U.S. House of Representatives prepares to pass a climate-change bill, the Australian Parliament is preparing to kill its own country's carbon-emissions scheme. Why? A growing number of Australian politicians, scientists and citizens once again doubt the science of human-caused global warming.

Strassel reports that the scientific debate about global warming has come roaring back to life in Australia, Europe, Japan, and even the USA.

Consider this:

The number of skeptics, far from shrinking, is swelling. Oklahoma Sen. Jim Inhofe now counts more than 700 scientists who disagree with the U.N. -- 13 times the number who authored the U.N.'s 2007 climate summary for policymakers. Joanne Simpson, the world's first woman to receive a Ph.D. in meteorology, expressed relief upon her retirement last year that she was finally free to speak "frankly" of her nonbelief. Dr. Kiminori Itoh, a Japanese environmental physical chemist who contributed to a U.N. climate report, dubs man-made warming "the worst scientific scandal in history." Norway's Ivar Giaever, Nobel Prize winner for physics, decries it as the "new religion." A group of 54 noted physicists, led by Princeton's Will Happer, is demanding the American Physical Society revise its position that the science is settled. (Both Nature and Science magazines have refused to run the physicists' open letter.)

This is indeed interesting. I do not know Strassel, but she is a conservative and the WSJ is not exactly a strong supporter of anthropogenic global warming, especially if measures to mitigate it have the potential to adversely affect corporate profits. And her piece is an opinion column. So you might be a bit skeptical.

I'll be interested in seeing how this plays out. As for me, I'm still not a skeptic.

"This is what's really happening in Klamath--call it rural cleansing--and it's repeating itself in environmental battles across the country. Indeed, the goal of many environmental groups--from the Sierra Club to the Oregon Natural Resources Council--is no longer to protect nature. It's to expunge humans from the countryside." -- Kimberley A. Strassel, 26 July 2001

The Breakthrough Institute and the Death of Environmentalism

Until yesterday morning I'd never heard of the The Breakthrough Institute or its two founders, Michael Shellenberger and Ted Nordhaus. But they were featured on NPR's  Morning Edition and what I learned was a real eye-opener for me.

What makes them and their tiny, five-person institute different is their approach to global warming: they view it not simply as an environmental problem, but as an economic opportunity and champion that approach. Instead of invoking schemes like cap-and-trade, they say, "Let's make clean energy affordable and ubiquitous."

The article relates how Shellenberger greets seven new interns:

Shellenberger tells the interns that environmental groups — like the ones he used to work for — are going about it all wrong. By urging Congress to cast carbon dioxide as a pollutant that needs to be controlled, he says, they will constantly swim against the tide of public opinion.

"We're stuck in this kind of poor paradigm for dealing with climate change, this pollution paradigm," he says, "not because environmentalists are failures, but actually because they were so successful. The Clean Water Act, the Clean Air Act, the cap and trade on acid rain — these things worked really well."

The article continues:

But reducing carbon dioxide is a different story. It's not just a nuisance byproduct, like the sulfur in coal that contributes to acid rain. Carbon dioxide is unavoidable when we burn coal, oil and natural gas. So getting rid of it means either capturing it at great expense, or regulating fossil fuels into oblivion.

In theory, regulation will force companies to develop cleaner alternatives as the price of carbon pollution grows. But Shellenberger says that'll never work.

"When was the last time human beings modernized our energy sources by making older power sources more expensive?" he asks the interns. "And, of course, by now you probably know that the answer is never."

Personal computers didn't take off because there was a tax on typewriters, he says. And the Internet didn't sprout up because the government made telegraphs more expensive.

"So is there a better way to do this? Well, we think that there is. It's very simple: It's that we need to make clean energy cheap worldwide."

What really struck me was Shellenberger and Nordhaus's essay, The Death of Environmentalism:

Download Death_of_Environmentalism

They say that modern environmentalism has outlived its usefulness when it comes to global warming. We need a new paradigm.

One thing they note is the reluctance of our environmental and other leaders to acknowledge the scale of the disasters that global warming likely holds in store for us. The public should not be frightened.

That's something that resonated with me, as I see impending disaster vis-a-vis water in the USA Southwest, yet am perplexed by the lack of leadership on the part of water mavens to address these catastrophes. We must not frighten people, nor must we discourage the go-go-growth of the region. We keep scouring the past looking for solutions to future problems we have not encountered before.

I think you'll find this informative reading.

"If we wish our civilization to survive we must break with the habit of deference to great men." -- Karl Popper

Climate Change Portal from the Santa Clara Valley Water District

Bob Teeter, the librarian at the SCV Water District, just sent this information to me.

The Santa Clara Valley Water District has a new Climate Change Portal page where interested users can follow the latest reports on climate change.  We think it will be particularly useful for those in the water industry on the West Coast, like us.  Browse reports by date (newest first) or by topic (such as adaptation, water utilities guidance, sample climate action plans).   Or do a keyword search to find just what you’re looking for.  Subscribe to the RSS feed in order to have links for the newest reports come to you.

I just checked this out - it's a great resource.

Enjoy!

"Science is the organized skepticism in the reliability of expert opinion"  -- Richard Feynman

Subsurface Carbon Capture and Storage: Problems?

Unintended consequences strike again! Chris Reimer of the NGWA sent me this recent article from the Calgary Herald.

While 'everyone' (hyberbole alert!) is rushing to implement subsurface CCS, Brian Berkowitz of the Weizmann Institute of Science in Israel is a bit more skeptical.

I met Brian Berkowitz at a meeting about 25 years ago, when he was finishing his PhD. Smart guy. Funny, too, although there is little humor in this story.

Here's a snippet from the Deborah Yedlin's article, after an introduction about some of Berkowitz's beliefs ( a good warning about unintended consequences):

But where he verges on heresy, at least in today's vernacular, is when the issue of carbon capture and storage (CCS) as being the answer to all the climate change challenges is raised.

You see, Berkowitz isn't convinced CCS is the answer.

"It's not a panacea," he says.

Here's more:

Earlier this month, at a geophysics conference held in Vienna, it was quietly revealed that Norway's Sleipner field, where the first CCS operation using a saline aquifer for storage was built 12 years ago, is raising troubling questions about the long-term efficacy of the process.

The reason goes back to simple chemistry. When carbon dioxide is added to a saline aquifer, a reaction takes place that creates carbonic acid.

While this is a relatively weak acid, over time it eats away at the rock, compromises the integrity of the aquifer and causes the carbon dioxide to escape.

While StatoilHydro said this week there is nothing wrong with its CCS project, it illustrates there are still questions that need to be answered

His skepticism is shared by many industry executives who have accepted CCS as the way to solve the emissions puzzle, but question the amount of energy required to re-tool or build facilities that are capable of capturing the carbon dioxide for use in enhanced oil recovery projects or for reinjection into the ground.

I've heard subsurface CCS skeptics warn about the formation of carbonic acid and its dissolution of rock. Think cavernous carbonate aquifers, although those formed over many, many years and materials like limestone and dolomite are more soluble than silicate-based rocks. But the issues surfacing after such a short duration of the Norwegian project are indeed troubling.

The article goes on to discuss the costs of CCS. Here is what author Jeff Rubin says:

"It's not impossible, but it is not going to be easy and it is certainly not going to be cheap. We will need to see prices for carbon emissions at least in the $60 to $70 per ton range before anyone is going to even look commercially at CCS."

For the record, Alberta has priced its carbon at $15 per ton and the U. S. legislation that has just been tabled is proposing a price of $10 per ton. The only way CCS can be implemented on the scale that is necessary to have an impact is for governments to heavily subsidize the cost. But when the decision is between jobs and the environment, especially in today's economic reality, the need to create jobs is going to trump the environment.

Okay, so how about those 16 trillion little mirrors we can shoot into space?

Looks like things are going to get a lot tougher before they get easier, if they ever do again.

Good read from the Great White North.

“Only those who will risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go.” -- T.S. Elliot

Report: Climate Change and the Global Water Crisis - What Businesses Need to Know and Do

From the Pacific Institute WWW site:

Climate Change and the Global Water Crisis: What Businesses Need to Know and Do, explores the linkages between climate change and water – from both the scientific and corporate management perspectives. Jointly released by the Pacific Institute and the UN Global Compact, the whitepaper covers a number of critical areas, including:

• How climate change is expected to impact water scarcity, water quality, and water demand;
• The ways in which water and energy are interconnected, including trade-off scenarios;
• The business risks of water and climate change;
• How businesses can strategically manage water-climate risks;
• And the linkages between climate and water and the UN Millennium Development Goals.

You can download the 12-page report here.

For such a brief report, it is crammed full of information and has good citations. The table summarizing the MDGs, climate change effects, and adaptation/resiliency is particularly helpful.

Since the report focuses on businesses, there is discussion of the "reputational aspects" - pressures, risks, and damages - of companies and the impact of climate change on these aspects.

And there is good treatment of the energy-water-climate change nexus.

One thing is missing: in mentioning climate change effects on water quality, it should have been mentioned that since we 'use' streamflow to dilute much of our waste, decreases in surface flows could impair this ability and lead to quality problems.

There is also the following statement (page 2): "Reduced precipitation in some arid regions could trigger exponentially larger drops in groundwater tables." That may be true, but the citation for that statement notes that it was based on a study near Lubbock, TX.  That's an arid (semi-arid) region, but the sample size is quite small.  The citation does not use the word 'exponential'.

A good read. Enjoy!

"Water and its availability and quality will be the main pressures on, and issues for, societies and the environment under climate change." --IPCC, 2007

May-June 2009 Southwest Hydrology: Beyond Stationarity

The May-June 2009 issue of Southwest Hydrology features Beyond Stationarity.

By stationarity we mean, that statistically speaking (e.g., means, standard deviations), the future looks like the past, whether we are talking about precipitation, runoff, or other flows in the hydrologic cycle.The assumption of stationarity allows engineers to design dams, calculate flood return periods, etc., with some degree of confidence. 

Stationarity is a hot topic in hydrology today. I've posted on it a number of times - here is a post from 24 February 2008 that will help you understand what it is and why it's important to water managers. You can download Chris Milly's Science article here.

Here is a post from 7 July 2007 with short articles on stationarity. 

Water managers know that climate change will impact their supplies in the future, but the timing and amount of impact that will occur remains uncertain. Articles in this issue explain how climate change projections are evaluated by experts worldwide, why model results can differ widely, and how those results are being reconciled. Examples from communities and utilities illustrate ways to cope with climate change and other future uncertainties, many of which are translatable to other regions.

You can download the entire issue, or individual articles:

IPCC: Handling a Hot Topic, by Eric Barron

Reconciling Projections of Colorado River Streamflow, by Martin Hoerling, Dennis Lettenmaier, Dan Cayan, and Brad Udall

Scenario Planning: Making Strategic Decisions in Uncertain Times, by Ralph Marra nd Timothy Thomure

Resources for Climate Planning and Adaptation, by Holly Hartmann

Coping with Climate Change at a Local Level, by Elizabeth Wilmott

Beyond Stationarity: Building the Center for Change, by Kimery Wiltshire

You can also download the individual departments as well: On the Ground, Government, HydroFacts, etc. There is a new feature, The Water Page, with some great graphics - precipitation, snowpack, storage, etc.

In the On the Ground department there is a great little article, The Surprising Value of Saltcedar, in which Edward Glenn, Pamela Nagler, and Jeffrey Lovich report that recent studies show that saltcedar water use is in line with those of native vegetation and that there is likely little to be gained by ripping up saltcedar stands to increase water availability. And its reputation as a poor wildlife habitat is apparently underserved.

So leave those saltcedar alone!

"One of the greatest labor-saving inventions of today is tomorrow." -- Unknown

Climate Change, Water, and Indigenous Peoples: Forgotten No More

I've posted about climate change and its impacts on water resources, but have not really thought much about the impacts on indigenous communities. Yet these communities will likely suffer the consequences of something they had virtually no role in creating. They'll just be dragged down with and by the rest of us. No say in the matter, right?

A few weeks I Twittered a CNN story on climate change effects - flooding, melting permafrost - that prompted the Eskimo village of Newtok, AK, to vote to abandon the coastal site for a safer one nine miles up the Ninglick River. Newtok's 340 residents will be much safer there.

I had forgottten about that story until the recent AWRA Conference when Larry Hartig discussed the plight of Newtok and some 30 villages, many of them native villages, along Alaska's coast.

But what really piqued my interest was a fascinating presentation at the same conference by Sarah Trainor of the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP) at the University of Alaska. Her talk was titled Climate Change, Water Impacts and Indigenous Peoples: Engaging Native Knowledge in Cross-Regional Comparison Between Alaska, the Pacific Islands and the American Southwest.

I thought the choice of the three regions was appropriate: all three are on the front lines of climate change and water impacts.  

Here is a copy of her abstract:

Download Trainor Abstract

Trainor discussed the video conferencing and the information gleaned. There were some common themes among the three communities:

• Take personal responsibility
• Take action
• Exert leadership
• Realize importance of cross-regional communication
• Form partnerships between Western science and native knowledge
• Recognize importance of native knowledge

The native knowledge aspect is interesting. I used to disparage that until the 1993 hantavirus outbreak in New Mexico. One of the Anglo medical investigators noted that a Navajo elder had remarked that he knew this was going to be a problem because the harvest of pinyon nuts had been very abundant.

WTF?

Well, the virus was spread by rodents, who of course loved pinyon nuts. More pinyon nuts, more rodents. More rodents, more opportunities for human-rodent interaction. Presto! More hantavirus! Duhhh....

You can find more information on the Cross-Regional Dialogue: Climate Change, Water Impacts and Indigenous People. You can access a program flyer. ACCAP, CLIMAS (Climate Assessment for the Southwest) and Pacific RISA are partners, The project is funded byNOAA's RISA (Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessment) program.

In a related vein, Anchorage was the site of the recent Indigenous Peoples’ Global Summit on Climate Change, 20-24 April 2009. The consensus declaration closes thusly:

We offer to share with humanity our Traditional Knowledge, innovations, and practices relevant to climate change, provided our fundamental rights as intergenerational guardians of this knowledge are fully recognized and respected. We reiterate the urgent need for collective action.

Here is the complete final declaration:

Download Final_Anchorage_Declaration

It's worth reading.

There is more information on climate change and indigenous peoples from TEBTEBBA.

WaterWired's Take: We have a lot to learn, and it's not all in books and journal articles.

"We don't have a lot of time. We have to all listen to one another." -- David Choquehuanca, foreign minister of Bolivia, at the Anchorage Summit

Southwest Climate Change Network

The Southwest Climate Change Network is the first website known to combine social networking with climate science is available to help people and organizations understand and plan for climate change in the Southwest USA.

From the WWW site:

The Southwest Climate Change Network is a virtual community for scientists, other experts, decision makers, and the public to share information on climate change and collaborate on solutions.

The Southwest region, including Northern Mexico, is projected to be warmer and possibly drier in the coming decades as a result of greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions likely will be reduced, but in the short term, a pressing need exists for reliable science and policy information that allows decision makers to plan for and adapt to climate change in our region. The Southwest Climate Change Network is designed to help meet this need.

Many agencies, companies, and organizations identify climate change as a planning priority but may not know where to obtain specific information. The Network will organize scientists and other experts to accelerate understanding of climate change and support action.

Recognizing the growing need for information about our changing climate, the Institute for Environment and Society (IES) and the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) at The University of Arizona developed and jointly administer the Southwest Climate Change Network. IES is a cross-campus resource and catalyst in the area of environment and society; it promotes both disciplinary and interdisciplinary research relating to the Earth’s environment, from local to global scales, and how this environment is likely to change in coming seasons, years, and decades. CLIMAS is a project housed within IES and funded by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to carry out stakeholder-driven interdisciplinary climate research. For more than 10 years, CLIMAS has contributed to the Southwest’s ability to respond sufficiently and appropriately to climatic events and climate changes.

"Climate change poses clear, catastrophic threats. We may not agree on the extent, but we certainly can't afford the risk of inaction." -- Rupert Murdoch

Climate Change in Alaska: Adaptation and Hydrologic Changes

I'm here in Anchorage for the aforementioned AWRA conference; you can access the conference  information here.

We had two excellent keynoters yesterday morning: 1) Larry Hartig, Commissioner of the Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) and Chair, Executive Sub-Cabinet on Climate Change; and 2) Dr. John Walsh, Chief Scientist of the International Arctic Research Center (IARC) at the University of Alaska-Fairbanks.

Hartig spoke on Climate Change in Alaska, How Do We Meet the Challenges Ahead?. He discussed the challenges the state faces, and how it is coping. Loss of winter sea ice is a big issue, because it increases erosion and the vulnerability of coastal communities to winter storms. Over 30 communities, many of them native communities, are impacted; a dozen are considering moving.

What was most important about Hartig's talk was the process that the state is following to identify adaptation mechanisms and make recommendations to the governor and legislature. Although Alaska obviously has some unique issues, I urge you to peruse the WWW site of the Executive Sub-Cabinet on Climate Change to see what Alaska's doing. It might be a helpful template. 

Click here to see some more photos.

Dr. Walsh's talk dealt with some of the hydroclimatic aspects of climate change: Climate Change and the Arctic Hydrologic Cycle.

He indicated that the northern high latitudes have had huge increases in winter temperatures in the past 60 years. Some Alaska stations have shown increases as high as 9 degrees F (5 degrees C); spring temperatures have increased although not as much. 

The growing season in interior Alaska has lengthened by 50%.

In the past 150 years, the average length of the North American winter has declined by about 2.5 weeks, as measured by the first freeze date and the river/ice breakup.

Over that same period, precipitation (P) and runoff (R) have increased; spring snow cover has declined.  

Walsh's conclusions regarding the northern high latitudes:

1. In the past 50-60 years, mean annual temperatures have increased
2. Some areas are drying/browning
3. P, R, and ET are likley to increase, although soil moisture will decline
4. Models predict that Alaska will warm, sea ice will decline, and the hydrologic cycle will change, as indicated in (3) 

Major uncertainties are the roles of: ET, permafrost thaw, sea ice loss, and storm changes. 

One major certainty: changes are ahead.

Presentations and videos/audios of these and the other talks will be placed online at the AWRA site, probably in a few weeks. [Disclosure notice: I am on the AWRA Board of Directors and the Technical Committee for this conference.]

"For the first time in history, my community has had to use air conditioners. Imagine that, air conditioners in the Arctic." -- Inuit leader Sheila Watt-Cloutier 

ClimateChangeWater Blog

I just learned of the ClimateChangeWater blog run by John H. Matthews, a PhD ecologist who also lives in Corvallis, OR, where he works for the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and flies about quite a bit - 300,000 miles in the past 18 months alone.

The following is from an email John sent me:

I engage on adaptation issues on a number of levels primarily from a conservation and development perspective. Right now I’m leading a project with the World Bank on developing an operational methodology for managing freshwater resources from both a biodiversity basis and a climate/non-stationarity viewpoint. I’ve just returned from Nairobi, where the Danish government had asked me to participate in the development of a set of land and water adaptation principles in advance of the December UNFCCC CoP. And I’ve been working with the a variety of governments and intergovernmental groups on freshwater adaptation issues, including UNEP, Ramsar, and the Chinese, Brazilian, and Indian governments. Of course, I also work with many projects inside of WWF globally, other NGOs such as TNC and CI , and I speak quite widely – World Water Forum, the Copenhagen Climate Congress, and our Danube program office in Vienna, to name a few from the past month.

Give it a view, and welcome, John!

"We are playing Russian roulette with features of the planet's atmosphere that will profoundly impact generations to come. How long are we willing to gamble? -- David Suzuki

Foreign Affairs: What to Read on Climate Change

Foreign Affairs just posted this list of What to Read on Climate Change.

From the introduction:

Climate change is one of today's most important and far-reaching policy challenges, destined to affect the planet's future in various ways for generations to come. Although research continues on its extent, its causes, and the appropriate responses, more than enough is already known for interested citizens to familiarize themselves with the situation and the relevant policy debates.

There is also a Google Tech Talk video by Ken Caldeira on Geoengineering Earth's Climate (if this link does not work you can access it from the reading list).

Enjoy!

"Go to Heaven for the climate, Hell for the company." -- Mark Twain

Climate Expert: Effects on the Pacific Northwest

Philip Mote, new head of the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, spoke in Corvallis two days ago on the potential changes that global warming could bring to the Pacific Northwest.

Reporter Bennett Hall covered the event and reported on it in the 9 April 2009 Corvallis Gazette-Times.

Are you ready for the news?

Mote mentioned some likely effects:

1) some increase in annual precipitation but a decrease in winter snowpack,   leading to summer water shortages;
2) more frequent and intense forest fires;
3) some additional loss of salmon runs, particularly in the inland Northwest; and
4) rising sea levels.

Projected sea-level rises vary widely, depending on the assumptions behind them.

On the days he's Pollyanna,  Mote foresees a modest 8-inch (18 cm) rise by 2100. But in his Cassandra mode, Mote said if the Antarctic ice sheet melts, as some scientists predict, that could translate into a 26-foot (8 m) jump in ocean levels. In his Apocalypse mode, Mote noted that if Greenland’s ice sheet follows that path, a 48-foot (almost 15 m) rise would result.

Probably coastal property would not be a wise investment.

But here in Oregon, fence-building could be a growth industry.

"Some days I’m optimistic. And then I have my Cassandra days.” -- Philip Mote

B & C's Water News: Special Climate Change Edition

Brown and Caldwell's Water News features a special Climate Change edition.

UC-Berkeley and UCLA Law Schools Start Blog - Legal Planet: Environmental Law and Policy

New blogs just keep on coming!

The law schools of UCLA and UC-Berkeley have launched a new blog: Legal Planet.

Here is the blurb I received via email:

"Legal Planet focuses on significant developments in law and policy for a general audience," said Dan Farber, director of Berkeley Law's environmental law program and faculty co-director of the school's Center on Law, Energy, and the Environment. "We highlight the latest legal and policy initiatives, and examine the impact they might have on our planet. Do they protect our natural resources, or impair our legacy for future generations? Do they reduce our carbon footprint, or worsen climate change? Are they real steps forward, or merely political posturing?"

"The rich academic environment of both law schools makes this cross-campus collaboration a natural fit," said Ann Carlson, faculty director of the Emmett Center on Climate Change and the Environment at UCLA School of Law. "Each law school's environmental law program is steeped in public policy and analysis, and reflects the broad interdisciplinary nature of this field."

Legal Planet co-creators Farber and Carlson said the site fills a unique space on the blogosphere, not only by bridging the worlds of law and policy, but also by translating the latest developments in a way that's understandable to a mass audience. The "global challenge of climate change" is the driving force behind the blog, said Carlson.

Contributors write about Supreme Court decisions, new policy developments, major regulatory actions, and state and national legislation that affect water resource management, toxic waste disposal, renewable energy, air quality, land use and more.

The blog also links to new policy ideas generated by the law schools' environmental, energy and climate change think tanks.

In addition to Farber and Carlson, contributors to Legal Planet include Eric Biber, acting professor at Berkeley Law; Holly Doremus, professor at Berkeley Law; Ethan Elkind, joint fellow at the law schools at UC Berkeley and UCLA; Richard Frank, executive director of Berkeley Law's Center for Law, Energy & the Environment (CLEE); Sean Hecht, executive director of the UCLA Environmental Law Center; Cara Horowitz, Andrew Sabin Family Foundation executive director of the UCLA Emmett Center on Climate Change and the Environment; Timothy Malloy, law professor at UCLA; Cymie Payne, director of Berkeley Law's Global Commons Project; Steven Weissman, associate director of CLEE; and Jonathan M. Zasloff, law professor at UCLA.

Should be a good one!

"Law school taught me one thing: how to take two situations that are exactly the same and show how they are different." -- Hart Pomerantz

Preliminary Program Online: Managing Water Resources and Development in a Changing Climate

The preliminary program - both  oral and poster sessions - is now online.  Here is the plenary session. Download a one-pager of the program-at-a-glance. Access all the other information here.

The conference welcome:

The American Water Resources Association (AWRA) is pleased to announce its Spring Specialty Conference "Managing Water Resources and Development in a Changing Climate". The Conference will be held May 4-6, 2009 in Anchorage, Alaska.

The Organizing Committee, AWRA staff, and Alaskans welcome you to Anchorage this spring to take part in the second specialty conference covering a wide-range of climate change and water resource topics.

Ten years ago, the AWRA helped lead the water resources discussion associated with the U.S. National Assessment on the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. A lot has changed in the last ten years. We have gone from debating the potential of changing climate conditions, to trying to understand how to address climate change in engineering design, management and policy, and scientific methods.

With over 200 abstracts submitted for the meeting, we have added additional tracks to include all the outstanding papers accepted. The meeting will provide a wealth of information for attendees with over 35 oral sessions and poster presentations from a broad range of topics including watershed responses, policy and management, international boundary management, and ecosystem responses.

In addition to the range of climate and water resource presentations and technical content, we also will have an excellent field trip showing off some of the classic beauty of Alaska, taking attendees from coastal mountain ranges to glaciers. Several workshops will cover topics from design of hydrologic data stations and analysis tools to GIS tools for decision making. We will also have networking breaks, “dine-around” conversation groups, and other excellent opportunities to network, make connections, and learn from a diverse group of water resource professionals.

We look forward to seeing you in Anchorage in May and know you will have exciting learning opportunities and a great time in our great state!

This will be an excellent conference! Michael R. Lilly (Conference Chair) and Horacio A. Toniolo (Technical Program Chair) have done extraordinary work in assembling a first-rate program. [Disclosure notice: I am on the AWRA Board of Directors and a member of the Technical Committee.]

See you up north! And maybe we can see Russia!

"They're our next door neighbors and you can actually see Russia from land here in Alaska, from an island in Alaska." --Gov. Sarah Palin, on her foreign policy insights into Russia, ABC News interview, 11 September 2008

2009 DC Water Report 2: Bob Hirsch Opines on Climate Change and Water Resources, Part 2 - Actionable Science, Adaptation, Advice

Yesterday I posted Part 1 of this two-parter in which Bob Hirsch left us with two thoughts:

1) search for actionable science and 2) adapt to uncertainty.

Actionable Science
So what is 'actionable science'? Bob gave these three quotes:

Data analysis, and forecasts that are sufficiently predictive, accepted, and understandable to support decision-making, including capital investment decision making. -- David Behar, San Francsico Public Utilities Commission and Staff Chair, Water Utility Climate Alliance.

Water managers should take the initiative to clearly communicate their needs for applied science to the climate research community, and must seek opportunities to guide hydroclimate research in directions that will support real-world problem solving -- Western Governors' Association

In order to be actionable, an issue has to be well-defined and climate change is not...There is insufficient coordination among the various groups conducting the studies...If we are to achieve the level of predictiability necessary to spur action by the conservative water industry, the research simply must improve.-- Patricia Mulroy, Southern Nevada Water Authority, Diving in the Deep End

Bob noted that Mulroy called for the President to develop a strategy to combine research efforts, now diffused through multiple federal agencies, into a single, Los Alamos-type center.

We both think that's not a great idea. I would also add that much of the relevant research occurs in university settings. I do agree that better coordination is desirable, but I disagree that a Los Alamos-type approach (or Manhattan Project, if you will) will necessarily produce 'actionable science'.

Adapt to Uncertainty
Okay so what about adaptation?

How about a seven step program from Marc Waage of Denver Water and the Water Utility Climate Alliance?

1. Deny uncertainty
2. Debate uncertainty
3. Investigate uncertainty
4. Attempt to reduce uncertainty
5. Accept uncertainty
6. Plan for uncertainty
7. Adapt to uncertainty

Bob then mentioned USGS Circular 1331, authored by four federal agencies, about which I posted earlier this month: Climate Change and Water Resources Management: A Federal Perspective. 

Bob's Final Thoughts for Managers

1. Keep monitoring
2. Explore the data
3. Be prepared for surprises
4. Adapt to uncertainty, it won't go away
5. Consider all of the sources of uncertainty
6. Focus on flexibility and regional collaboration

Bob's Final Thoughts for Universities

1. Keep your eye on all the major change drivers, not just climate
2. Improve understanding of the determinants of water uses and impacts of water use (agriculture)
3. New planning paradigm - hydro, statistics, operations research, political science, law economics
4. Describe the changing world

Bob then provided some examples of (1) - major drivers of change important to water planning over the next several decades:

1. Ground water depletion
2. Nutrient use and management
3. Urban growth and choices of landscape design
4. Public concern and legal requirements for ecosystem preservation or restoration
5. Energy production alternatives and greenhouse gas mitigation strategies
6. Thermal-electric
7. Biofuels
8. Coal-bed and deep methane sources
9. Geosequestration of CO2
10. Climate change

Planning and management paradigms must be adjusted based on the following:

1. Adaptation to many types of change, not just climate
2. Uncertainty in several of the areas of change is unlikely to go away any time soon - this includes climate change.
3. Substantial attention to diversification of supplies, regional cooperation, and flexibility
4. Better understanding of the determinants of water use is crucial - this includes undertsanding the roles of pricing, education and technology transfer, operation of water markets, and the related legal systems. Coming to grips with the constitutional question, 'Is water an article of interstate commerce?' has significant bearing on the future of water.

The university community has a potentially large role to play in helping the water planning and management community by developing new approaches that move away from a stationary paradigm to one in which adaptation to uncertanty is a constant.

Well said, Dr. Hisrch.

"The only books that separate ground water and surface water are our law books." -- Duane Smith, Executive Director, Oklahoma Water Resources Board 

2009 DC Water Report 1: Bob Hirsch Opines on Climate Change and Water Resources, Part 1 - Background

I am back in DC again for the National Institutes of Water Resources (NIWR) annual meeting and "Capitol Hill crawl' to exercise our First Amendment rights. If we tap into some of that thar 'stimulus' money - well, that'd be just dandy.

Faithful readers of WaterWired know that in my previous two NIWR visits, I posted about the "water words of wisdom' from Dr. Robert (Bob) Hirsch of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), who had addressed  the group during those visits. You can read my 2007 and 2008 reports.

Bob is no longer serving in an administrative capacity, having returned to research last spring, so his presentation was more specific this year. He dealt primarily with the climate change aspects of water resources. I think you'll find his comments off the beaten track.

Bob came prepared for me - as I approached him to obtain his permission to blog his comments, he smiled and told me he assumed as much and gave me a paper copy of what he said. So now I have so much material that I will report it in two separate posts.  

Bob opened by referring to the Milly et al. (2008) paper (he was a co-author) dealing with the 'demise' of stationarity and repeated two salient points from that work:

1. Modeling should be used to synthesize observations; it can never replace them.

2. In a nonstationary world, continuity of observations is crucial.

Number two is especially important these days; it says we need to keep making observations - streamflow, precipitation, ground water levels, etc. Data collection programs are often the first ones to get axed in tight financial times. Guess what Bob and many of us are worried about?

He then described what the data suggest vis-a-vis climate change and water resources:

1. Flow timing shifts in areas where snow has been significant.

2. Predominantly, there have been increases in low streamflows and average streamflows.

3. Changes in flooding have been very unclear.

4. Changes in ground water recharge have been very unclear.

Bob then referred to comments made by Ralph Keeling from an article in Science [2008, pp. 1771-1772]. Ralph Keeling is the son of  Dave Keeling, responsible for the Mauna Loa CO2 curve, arguably the most important climate data we have today. Here is what Ralph said:

A continuing challenge to long-term Earth observations is the prejudice against science that is not directly aimed at hypothesis testing [emboldening mine]. At a time when the planet is being propelled by human action... We cannot afford such a rigid view of the scientific enterprise.

The only way to figure out what is happening to our planet is to measure it and this means tracking changes decade after decade, and poring over the records.

 Doesn't sound very sexy, does it?

Okay, so what does all this stuff mean, especially to water mangers, who must actually manage water reources in the face of climate change? There are two emerging schools of thought emerging:

1. Search for 'actionable science'

2. Adapt to uncertainty

So, class, we'll pick up from this point tomorrow.

To be continued...

"Today we're seeing that climate change is about more than a few unseasonably mild winters or hot summers. It's about the chain of natural catastrophes and devastating weather patterns that global warming is beginning to set off around the world.. the frequency and intensity of which are breaking records thousands of years old." -- President Barack Obama

Overpeck: Arizona in Climate-Change Bull's-Eye

Dr. Jonathan Overpeck of the University of Arizona's (UA) Institute for Environment and Society didn't mince any words speaking to members of the Enivronment Committee of the Arizona House of Representatives.

You can read Tony Davis' story from the 18 February 2009 edition of the Arizona Daily Star (you may have to register for free).

Here are some tidbits from the story:

Temperatures could regularly hit the 130s in Phoenix by the second half of this century due to human-caused climate change. In Tucson, temperatures could periodically go into the 120s by that time.

A group of researchers meeting at a conference Overpeck attended this week in Seattle concluded that the most likely reduction in Colorado River flows from global warming and drought will be about 20 percent by 2050. A separate study, still under review for publication, will predict a 30 percent chance that Lake Mead and Lake Powell could go dry by 2050 if nothing is done about climate change, he said.

Various reports indicate Arizona has the country's fastest or second-fastest warming temperatures and predict that Arizona will warm up and dry faster than any other state.

Overpeck warned of a potential economic calamity if the Central Arizona Project went dry for a year. 

Larry Dozier, CAP's Deputy General Manager, said that the CAP was looking at cloud seeding, removing water-sucking tamarisks, and searching for more water supplies to try to avert catastrophe.

Despite Overpeck's testimony, the committee will consider legislation to withdraw Arizona from the Western Climate Initiative, a seven-state effort to limit GHG emissions.

That same day, a study commissioned by the Western Business Roundtable

"...found the initiative's greenhouse-gas cap-and-trade plan could 'chase away tens of billions of dollars in high-technology investment from the West to other regions' and would "further stress the West's already strained electricity grid, increasing the threat of potentially catastrophic power outages."

Perhaps Overpeck should distribute copies of Dead Pool to the committee.

"Climate change poses clear, catastrophic threats. We may not agree on the extent, but we certainly can't afford the risk of inaction." -- Rupert Murdoch

Climate Change and Water Resources Management: A Federal Perspective

There is a new interagency publication - USGS Circular 1331 - from USGS, NOAA, USACE and Reclamation. The summary follows.

Many challenges, including climate change, face the Nation’s water managers. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has provided estimates of how climate may change, but more understanding of the processes driving the changes, the sequences of the changes, and the manifestation of these global changes at different scales could be beneficial. Since the changes will likely affect fundamental drivers of the hydrological cycle, climate change may have a large impact on water resources and water resources managers.

The purpose of this interagency report prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is to explore strategies to improve water management by tracking, anticipating, and responding to climate change. This report describes the existing and still needed underpinning science crucial to addressing the many impacts of climate change on water resources management.

Key points:

         The best available scientific evidence based on observations from long-term monitoring networks indicates that climate change is occurring, although the effects differ regionally.
·        Climate change is but one of many challenges facing water resource managers. Water managers need to consider the many sources of uncertainty and drivers of change.  These include demographic change, changes in the way people use water in cities, farms, and in energy development, declining amounts of ground water in storage in some regions of the Nation, and demands for water to meet ecological goals.
·        Long-term monitoring networks are critical for detecting and quantifying climate change and its impacts. Continued improvement in the understanding of climate change, its impacts, and the effectiveness of adaptation or mitigation actions requires continued operation of existing long-term monitoring and analysis of data, particularly of precipitation, snow pack, soil moisture, ground water and streamflow.
·        Predictive modeling and ongoing monitoring are both needed to narrow the range of uncertainty about the future of water resources.  But the uncertainty will remain large, and planning and management approaches need to continue to evolve to improve the quality of water management decisions in the coming decades.  This report is designed to describe the state of current understanding and practice in dealing with this issue and to point the way forward for responsible water management in the face of climate change.

Climate Change and Water Resources Management: A Federal Perspective by Levi D. Brekke, Julie E. Kiang, J. Rolf Olsen, Roger S. Pulwarty, David A. Raff, D. Phil Turnipseed, Robert S. Webb, and Kathleen D. White  

Climate Change Conspiracy: Two Videos and an Email Exchange

Colleague Bruce Thomson (shown here with a Kazakh colleague, Olga Buzzov) from the University of New Mexico, one of the smartest guys I know, sent me this exchange between one of his friends and himself.  It involves global warming, and in particular, two videos.

Bruce's friend:

In case you guys have not seen the CBC documentary or the second more dramatic program on the disagreement of actual science and 
top climatologists with the current climate change scam, I attach the two 
links.  I thought these programs were very good and was relieved that 
real scientists are collecting real data and FINALLY speaking out 
against the politicians, United Nations, and Wall Street banker 
interests in the promotion of the false conclusions about climate 
change.

Maybe Al Gore will be sorry he ever "invented" the internet! 
Because of the internet, I believe that the climate change scam will 
crumble in the light of the work that is going on now to show that the 
real scientific community is not on board at all.  Unbelievable to me 
that this thing could have such a following of well intentioned but 
unquestioning people.

The pdf attachment [unavailable] is all about Al's motives, as if we can
 ever know or care what the true reasons are for the guy, but it is 
interesting to me that it is much of the same Wall Street gang that is 
currently looting our accounts.

During the Depression, people learned to carry their billfolds in 
their front pocket so they would not be pick-pocketed.  Now I see why!

Enjoy and let me know what you think.

I have been upset about this topic for some time and I really like 
seeing the scientific community trying to correct this junk science.

Bruce's Reply:

I watched one of the videos and part of the other and, though they're well done, I don't agree.  There's an awful lot of evidence supporting the climate change hypothesis in widely diverse fields by a lot of very smart, careful, and most importantly, independent and very ethical scientists.  Their data come from atmospheric science, paleontology, biology, glaciology, meteorology, all kinds of earth observations and other fields.   I find it impossible to believe that there's a conspiracy of this magnitude to create this scenario.  There's too much agreement between too many disparate fields of studies.

In my experience, the naysayers/disbelievers pick at the margins.  They'll find tidbits of contradictory evidence and extrapolate from this to the conclusion that the whole climate change hypothesis is wrong.  Certainly the globe has been warmer and colder than today, but the rate of change of temperature, of ice sheet melting & glacial retreat, of changes in biomes & species extinction, of changes in weather patterns, arctic warming, and of CO2 levels in the last 100 years is unprecedented.  Both the first and second derivatives are positive and much greater than at any time in the past.

Lastly,  I see very little downside in working to minimize CO2 emissions regardless of whether climate change is occurring.  Maybe there's a slight impact on global economies, but that's a tiny blip on the curve.  On the positive side, accepting the climate change hypothesis leads to energy conservation and that can only be a good thing - it'll preserve our fossil fuel resources a bit longer and encourage us to develop alternative energy sources.  Accepting the hypothesis spurs a lot of good science and development of new technologies.  Maybe it'll force us to start living more sustainable lives.  And there's a lot of international cooperation as countries work together to develop the science, technologies, and policies to meet the problem.

But the downside risks of ignoring the hypothesis are enormous.  Drought.  Sea level rise.  Spread of tropical diseases.  Extreme weather phenomena.  Scariest of all might be the inertia of the whole thing.  A climate guy here said that if we reduced CO2 emissions to 1950 levels it would likely take 100 years or longer to re-establish 1950 atmospheric CO2 levels, if that would even be possible; there are feedback loops such as ice cap melting that may make the impacts irreversible.

So the videos are provocative.  And we should all watch 'em, but watch them critically.  And don't let them change public policies related to conservation and sustainability.  But my opinion won't change till I see agreement by many people from many fields published in refereed journals - not videos for the general public.

Check out my earlier posts on Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK), the "ostrich syndrome",  and another global warming skeptic.

I love massive conspiracy theories, whether they deal with climate change, world financial domination, evolution, or whatever strikes your fancy. Makes life a lot simpler when you believe that "hidden forces" or members of some secret society are controlling things, and you are just a helpless pawn. You don't really have to think much.

Regarding global conspiracies by scientists: anyone who believes this doesn't know science or scientists. Global conspiracies require the acquiescence of large numbers of people. So you're going to get a huge number of scientists from disparate fields to toe the line? Uh-huh. Dream on, friend. Go to a meeting of one of the mainstream scientific societies and see what tranpsires.  

Slick videos are great, but what counts is the cauldron that is the refereed scientific literature.  

Oh, yeah - I'm with Bruce.

"In fact, one thing that I have noticed . . . is that all of these conspiracy theories depend on the perpetrators being endlessly clever. I think you'll find the facts also work if you assume everyone is endlessly stupid." -- Unknown

Increased Western USA Tree Mortality: Warming, Water Deficits

From a media release written by David Stauth of Oregon State University:

 

Regional warming and drought stress are the “dominant contributors” to a rapid increase of tree mortality in old growth forests across the West during the past 50 years, a new report concludes, with the Pacific Northwest the hardest hit of all areas studied.

The findings, published on 23 January 2009 in the journal Science suggest that a persistent increase in the mortality rate would ultimately cause a 50 percent reduction in the average tree age in forests, a potential reduction in average tree size and make many forests vulnerable to abrupt dieback.

A doubling of tree mortality has been occurring as fast as every 17 years in the Pacific Northwest in recent decades, and at slower rates in California and Rocky Mountain states.

In one of the first studies of this type ever done in temperate zones, this disturbing phenomenon was found to be occurring at every elevation, in trees of different sizes and various species.

Read the entire report for yourself:

Download Tree death

NGWA Ground Water Summit Final Program

The final program for the 2009  Ground Water Summit is now available.  The Summit  will be held in Tucson, AZ, 19-23 April.

Short courses will be held on 19 April, followed by three days (20-22 April) of presentations, culminating in two all-day field trips on the last day, 23 April.

Scott King and I are moderating a short session on Climate Change, Drought, and Transboundary Ground Water on 22 April.

And remember - the April average high temperature in Tucson is 81 degrees F, the average low temperature is 50 degrees F.

Early-bird registration fees are good till 22 March. The conference is being held at the tony Hilton El Conquistador Golf & Tennis Resort. Yes, it's nice, but the "special" conference room rate is $194/night, which is kind of pricey for Tucson. I got a state government rate almost half that ($106) at the Holiday Inn Express Hotel and Suites in Oro Valley, just a short walk from the conference venue.

It'll be a very good conference - see you there!

"Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." -- Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. 

Congressional Water and Climate Presentation by Peter Gleick

On January 9 Peter Gleick of the Pacific Institute gave presentations to both the House of Representatives and the Senate. The title: Water and Climate Change: Managing Unavoidable Impacts; Avoiding Unmanageable Impacts.

His conclusions:

1. Impacts of climate change on water systems are already occurring
2. Both mitigation and adaptation are needed
3. Recommendations to water managers have been available for two decades but actual progress towards implementing them have been slow
4. In many cases there is compelling evidence that climate changes will pose serious problems to water systems
5. National water policy must be reevaluated and updated to meet 21st century challenges, including the risks of climate change to the USA's water

He then provided eight recommendations to Congress:

1. Constitute  a new, national bipartisan Water Commissionto to develop new water policy recommendations
2. Update the Clean Water Act and the Safe Drinking Water Act
3. Reorganize and streamline the diverse and uncoordinated Federal water responsibilities
4. Expand investment in our drinking water and wastewater treatment systems, especially for small communities
5. Establish Federal incentives for improving water efficiency and reducing wasteful use of water, using the Farm Bill, trade laws, plumbing codes, and tax code revisions
6. Spotlight national security issues related to water and climate
7. Update the 2000 National Assessment on the impacts of climate change on USA water resources
8. Integrate climate change into all Federal water decisions and policies

Gleick also provides budget recommendations for a variety of Federal agencies.

Excellent advice from the man who should be the first White House Water Advisor.

"The evidence that humans are changing the water cycle of the United States is increasingly compelling." -- National Water Assessment Report, 2000

Washington's Loss is Our Gain - Dr. Philip Mote Leads Oregon Climate Change Research Institute

Allow me some chest-thumping on behalf of my adopted home state.

It's great to welcome Dr. Philip W. Mote, the soon-to-be erstwhile Washington State Climatologist, to Oregon, where he will head the new Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI). He will also become a professor in the College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Science at Oregon State University, where the institute will be located. He will begin his new duties on a part-time basis in the spring, transitioning to full-time in the summer of 2009.

Phil has been Washington’s state climatologist since 2003, a research scientist with the Climate Impacts Group at the University of Washington, where he has worked since 1998, and an affiliate professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences. He has a Ph.D. in atmospheric sciences from the UW and received his undergraduate degree in physics from Harvard University.

Mote is a leading scientist on the impacts of climate change, including variations in Pacific Northwest and national snowpacks, sea levels, water resources, precipitation and temperatures. He was a lead author for the fourth assessment report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which received a Nobel Prize for its efforts.

Oregon Gov. Ted Kulongoski said, "I am pleased that Phil Mote has agreed to be the first director of the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute. This institute will be critical to advancing Oregon’s position as a leader in climate change research and policy development, and Phil’s world class background in this area will help ensure Oregon continues to be a leading resource on climate science nationally and around the globe."

“I am really excited to lead this new institute, building partnerships both among researchers across the Oregon University System and between researchers and people who need to understand what climate means for them – whether in state government, the private sector, or whatever,” Mote said.

“The level of enthusiasm among researchers and many other Oregonians for this new institute is part of what made this job so appealing,” Mote added.

Read the entire media release (the source of most of the above).

I am very excited about having Phil as a colleague. His reputation and expertise are legendary, not just in the Pacific Northwest, but around the globe.

In the vernacular, his dance card will be quite full.

Welcome, Phil!

“We must dare to think “unthinkable” thoughts. We must learn to explore all the options and possibilities that confront us in a complex and rapidly changing world.” – former Sen. J. William Fulbright (D-AR)