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Favorite Blogs

  • Aguanomics
    The economics of water (and some other stuff), courtesy of economist David Zetland.
  • Water SISWEB
    From UC-Davis water students. More than just a blog, it's a water resources community social bookmarking site. The users run the show, and all can participate.
  • Great Lakes Law
    Noah Hall's blog about - what else - all things wet and legal in the Great Lakes region!
  • Misublog
    Laura Makar's blog is designed to inform and contribute to the discussion of water policy.
  • AWRA
    The water resources blog of the American Water Resources Association.
  • Campanastan
    That's 'Campana-stan', or 'Place of Campana', formerly 'Aquablog'. Michael Campana's personal blog, promulgating his Weltanschauung.
  • Waterblogged
    Shaun McKinnon of the Arizona Republic.
  • Waterblogged.info
    Jared Simpson's water blog. Great writing and insight, for non-water wonks, too.
  • Water For The Ages
    Abby, another PNWer, writes about global water issues with passion and concern.
  • Crooks and Liars
    John Amato's blog about...'Crooks and Liars'.
  • H2O Podcast
    Joseph Puentes does us WaterWonks a service by posting podcasts of conferences, etc.
  • H2ONCoast
    Oregon's North Coast water blog by Rob Emanuel of Oregon State University's Sea Grant program.
  • Aquafornia
    Aqua Blog Maven's awesome Southern California water blog. Everything you need to know about SoCal water issues, and more!
  • Western Water Blog
    The 'mystery blog' about Western USA water issues. What more can I say?
  • WaterWired
    All things fresh water. A service of the Institute for Water and Watersheds at Oregon State University (water.oregonstate.edu).
  • Water Words That Work
    From Eric Eckl, a communications and marketing expert for environmental and other progressive causes.
  • Watercrunch
    The sound when water and people collide. Robert Osborne emphasizes Southeastern USA water issues. Excellent graphics and features.
  • John Fleck
    Science writer at the Albuquerque Journal. Great stuff on climate, water, and more.
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Climate Change

July 03, 2008

The Desiccation of Turkey's Lakes

OMEDDRY_P2 View this slide show from the Christian Science Monitor. Read the related story, the source of the photo by Melanie Stetson Freeman.

Here are the first few paragraphs of Nicole Itano's story:

Arif Karaoglu recalls the days when Lake Aksehir lapped at the foot of the village mosque and residents had to build high walls to protect their homes from flooding. Now, when he looks out across the landscape, he sees only a vast, sandy plateau. Until recently, a body of water three times the size of Washington, D.C., filled the plain.

"Dust," laments Mr. Karaoglu, who moved to the village in 1942. "There's nothing but dust."

Dubbed the country's grain warehouse, central Turkey's Konya plain has long been known for its beautiful lakes and vast fields, which produce 10 percent of Turkey's agricultural yield. But both are now threatened by a severe water shortage that dramatically illustrates a broader regional crisis.

"Talk sense to a fool and he calls you foolish." -- Euripides

July 02, 2008

Climate Change and Water Resources Conference: Call for Abstracts

Header

Well, as you can see from the above I am again shilling for the American Water Resources Association [Disclosure notice: I am on AWRA's Board].

The Call for Abstracts has just been issued; abstracts are due by 5 December 2008.

Here is the blurb on the conference WWW site:

Public and scientific awareness of changing climate conditions is increasing each year. These changes represent themselves in many ways: more frequent and extreme weather events, droughts in the southeastern and western states, potential for increasing flooding and coastal erosion damage, increasing irrigation and depletion of aquifers, and melting permafrost and reductions in arctic sea ice in Alaska. Understanding these changes and related management challenges is an increased focus for water resources professionals. Sustaining current communities, while allowing for continued economic development will require continued advancements in water-resource understanding, conservation, water-use practices, and improved management approaches. Education across all levels will be needed to move communities forward to help develop and implement sustainable water-resources development.

AWRA has been a leader in the national dialogue on many aspects of climate change and water resources. The U.S. National Assessment on the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change took place in the late 1990's with significant contributions by AWRA and its membership. Since the National Assessment, the AWRA has continued to promote active dialogue and conversation on climate and water-management issues through publications and specialty conferences. The water-assessment part of this effort resulted in a 1999 Spring Specialty Conference on Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change to Water Resources of the United States, and was followed by the publication of more than 30 articles in JAWRA.

What has transpired in the 10 years since the 1999 conference? How have the predictions and concerns presented in the assessment of these issues developed? We invite you to come, participate, discuss, and make connections on these issues on the 10th anniversary of the 1999 Specialty Conference. We will have a full agenda covering water-resource issues from around the country set in the backdrop of America's frontier, Alaska, during its fiftieth year since statehood.

Meeting topics will include meeting future water-supply needs, drought and flood co-management, ecosystem impacts, and water-management challenges. Additionally, since the Arctic is a place where change is expected to occur sooner and with greater effect, Alaska will be an ideal place to examine the many changes that are happening locally and effects on meeting the young state's development interests and the nation's energy needs. Interested water-resource professionals are encouraged to submit abstracts on these and other related topics of national and international interest. This meeting promises to be one of a kind in showcasing current thinking in this dynamic field. The outcomes of this conference will help set the foundation for continued dialogue and conversations on how to manage and adapt to changing water-resources conditions and needs for many years to come. Please contact Michael Lilly, Conference Chair, for further information.

"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get." -- Mark Twain or Robert A. Heinlein (take your pick)

June 26, 2008

USGS Congressional Briefing: Climate Change Impacts on the Colorado River

On 6 June 2008, the USGS held a briefing for Members of Congress and Congessional staffers on Climate Change: Impacts on the Colorado River.

Some notes from a colleague:

  • Tony Willardson of the Western States Water Council spoke about using the thermal band on the planned Landsat 8 for measuring evapotranspiration and the continual difficulties with funding and support for this sensor.
  • Dr. Gregory J. McCabe of the USGS stated that current climate change models are not good enough to predict the change in water supply. For further information please read this article.
  • Dr. Terrance Fulp, Deputy Director of the Bureau of Reclamation's Lower Colorado Region, talked about market-driven approaches to water management. He described a joint task force that is part of the overall Department of Interior task force on climate change.
  • Eric Kuhn, General Manager of the Colorado River Water Conservation District, discussed the variables influencing water supply and demand: fixed obligations on the upper Colorado River, early snowmelt, tree loss from moths, and oil-shale industry demands, to name a few. He asked what efforts are underway to better utilize satellite data for the Colorado River Basin, specifically flow, temperature, and quality.

You can view speakers' biographies and PowerPoints here.

“The true measure of a man is how he treats someone who can do him absolutely no good.” – Samuel Johnson

June 22, 2008

Report: Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events in the USA

A new report from the U.S. Climate Change Science Program examines the effects of climate change on extreme weather events.

The following is from the WWW site:

Extremetable_small Among the major findings reported in this assessment are that droughts, heavy downpours, excessive heat, and intense hurricanes are likely to become more commonplace as humans continue to increase the atmospheric concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases.

The report is based on scientific evidence that a warming world will be accompanied by changes in the intensity, duration, frequency, and geographic extent of weather and climate extremes.

"This report addresses one of the most frequently asked questions about global warming: what will happen to weather and climate extremes? This synthesis and assessment product examines this question across North America and concludes that we are now witnessing and will increasingly experience more extreme weather and climate events," said report co-chair Tom Karl, Ph.D., director of NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, NC.

"We will continue to see some of the biggest impacts of global warming coming from changes in weather and climate extremes,” said report co-chair Gerry Meehl, Ph.D., of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. "This report focuses for the first time on changes of extremes specifically over North America."

The full CCSP 3.3 report, Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate, and a summary FAQ brochure are available online.

Global warming of the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced increases in heat-trapping gases, according to the report. Many types of extreme weather and climate event changes have been observed during this time period and continued changes are projected for this century. Specific future projections include:

  • Abnormally hot days and nights, along with heat waves, are very likely to become more common. Cold nights are very likely to become less common.
  • Sea ice extent is expected to continue to decrease and may even disappear in the Arctic Ocean in summer in coming decades.
  • Precipitation, on average, is likely to be less frequent but more intense.
  • Droughts are likely to become more frequent and severe in some regions.
  • Hurricanes will likely have increased precipitation and wind.
  • The strongest cold-season storms in the Atlantic and Pacific are likely to produce stronger winds and higher extreme wave heights.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department, is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events and information service delivery for transportation, and by providing environmental stewardship of our nation's coastal and marine resources.

NOAA plays a key role in the Climate Change Science Program, which is responsible for coordinating and integrating climate research, observations, decision support, and communications of 13 federal departments and agencies.

The National Center for Atmospheric Research investigates climate, weather, and other topics related to the atmosphere. It is sponsored by the National Science Foundation and managed by a nonprofit consortium of universities, the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

"Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get" -- Mark Twain

June 17, 2008

Global Warming Gods Speak: Bjorn Lomborg and John Coleman

Global Warming Gods Bjorn Lomborg and John Coleman have spoken (forgive the hyperbole).

150px-Bj%C3%B8rn_Lomborg_1 You're probably aware of Bjorn Lomborg, the Danish economist who wrote The Skeptical Environmentalist in 2001, a book that still raises hackles among some. But he also started the Copenhagen Consensus, a project that asks economists to prioritize the world's problems to see where money is best spent in order to promote human welfare.

From the Wikipedia entry:

The project is based on the contention that, in spite of the billions of dollars spent on global challenges by the United Nations, the governments of wealthy nations, foundations, charities, and non-governmental organizations, the money spent on problems such as malnutrition and climate change is not sufficient to meet many internationally-agreed targets. This argument is supported by evidence from the World Bank, which estimates that the UN's Millennium Development Goals would cost an additional annual $40-$70 billion on top of the $57 billion already spent as of 2004; this increased expenditure would have to continue each year until 2015 in order to achieve the Millennium Development Goals.

Lomborg was on Fareed Zakaria's GPS show on 15 June 2008 (should be online in a few days), talking in part about global warming, mainly to say that it was at the bottom of the Copenhagen Consensus' list. Lomborg accepts global warming, he just doesn't believe in all the ideas being bandied about to mitigate global warming. He is a strong believer in adaptation - but with some qualifications.

For example, he said that instead of helping Bangladesh adapt to global warming, we should focus on building Bangladesh's economy, so that they will become wealthy and can pay for their own adaptations, such as sea walls. But will Bangladesh become wealthy in time? Hmmmm.

Likewise, Lomborg said we should support China and India and other countries in their inexorable march toward Western-style affluence. Only then, Lomborg says, will they want to become "green", like the West has become. But that will take 50 years. So what happens in the meantime? 

Lomborg also made an odd statement in pointing out the economic folly of the German government spending $100B on solar power. He said that total investment will "delay global warming by one hour". Say what? Bjorn, global warming is not a "discrete" event. Perhpas he meant "delay the temperature maximum by one hour."

Although Lomborg's ideas are intriguing and merit consideration, I have to admit I am skeptical when one disciplinary group - be it from economics, law, hydrology, etc. - poses a solution to a complicated, global problem.

And, fairly or not, Lomborg does carry some baggage from his aforementioned book.

The last thing Zakaria asked him was "What did the Copenhagen Consensus rank as the most cost-effective project to bring the greatest welfare to the most people?" Answer: addressing micronutrient malnutrition. About 2-3 billion people have a deficiency of one essential nutrient that can significantly impair their mental and physical health. Iron is a good example.

So we're talking about vitamins! Lomborg said this would cost about $300M per year. Pretty cheap!

Kusi_coleman_bio Okay, who's John Coleman? I had never heard of him till friend Don Mahin (my first graduate student - Master of Science 30 years ago!) sent me a link to his comments before the San Diego Chamber of Commerce that assailed anthropogenic global warming. Let me guess - the SD C of C was probably a very receptive audience for these comments, especially since Coleman really dumped on Al Gore.

So who is he? Coleman is a weatherman on KUSI in San Diego. He has been doing this stuff for over 55 years, which eminently qualifies him as an expert on climate change, and even started the Weather Channel until the "bad guys" took it from him. 

Here are some of his reasons why anthropogenic global warming is a myth:

1) CO2 is not a significant GHG. Why not? Well, because its concentration in the atmosphere is so low (c. 385 ppm) that it can't possibly be a significant GHG!  What logic! Hey, John, there are many chemicals that are effective at far lower concentrations. Try ozone, whose low concentrations (c. 10-15 ppm, outside of heavily polluted areas) in the atmosphere provide essential  protection from UV rays. How about hydrogen sulfide? Exposure to 100 ppm (or even fewer ppm) for less than an hour will kill you. 

2) Coleman also makes a big point of the fact that 31,000 scientists (9,000 were PhDs) signed a statement refuting global warming. He uses pure numbers to refute the 2,500 who comprise the IPCC - 31,000 trumps 2,500. So are these 31,000 scientists (or 9,000 PhDs) people with expertise in climatology and atmospheric science? I have a PhD in hydrology. So am I an expert in global warming? If I signed a petition (as a PhD) decrying the basis for supply-side economics would that carry any weight? It shouldn't.

3) Even more compelling proof awaits us. Coleman cites the International Conference of Climate Change Skeptics (actually, "Skeptics" was not in the title, but that's what Coleman has - a slip of the tongue, perhaps) in New York City last March. It attracted 100 speakers and filled every one of its 600 seats (perhaps the venue could not hold more). Wow! A conference in NYC that attracted 600 people! Surely that lends great credibility to the anti-global warming frenzy! I suspect if I held a conference on "pyramid power" in Santa Fe, NM, I could fill a 600-seat venue. Would that mean "pyramid power" has credibility? In Coleman's world, yes. 

The above are the kinds of arguments that have great traction with groups like the San Diego C of C.

Here is Coleman's Corner, where you can read more.

"My mission, in what is left of a long and exciting lifetime, is to stamp out this Global Warming silliness and let all of us get on with enjoying our lives and loving our planet, Earth." -- John Coleman

June 15, 2008

Greenland Freshwater Runoff Increasing

This was published in the 13 June 2008 Environmental News Network.

The Greenland Ice Sheet is melting faster than previously calculated according to a recently released scientific paper by University of Alaska Fairbanks researcher Sebastian H. Mernild. The study, published in the journal Hydrological Processes, is based on models using data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, as well as satellite images and observations from on the ground in Greenland. Mernild and his team found that the total amount of fresh water projected to flow from the Greenland Ice Sheet into the North Atlantic Ocean from 2071 to 2100 will be more than double current levels.

Today, the East Greenland Ice Sheet adds 257 cubic kilometers of fresh water to the ocean per year from both melting and iceberg calving. By 2100, those levels are estimated to reach 456 cubic kilometers per year. With land-based runoff factored in, the total fresh water flowing from Greenland into the ocean is estimated to increase from 438 cubic kilometers to 650 cubic kilometers by 2100 [doesn't look like a doubling to me]. The projected increase means that rather than rising at a rate of 1.1 millimeters per year, sea levels would rise by 1.6 millimeters per year.

'The Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance is changing as a response to the altered climatic state,' said Mernild. 'This is faster than expected. This affects freshwater runoff input to the North Atlantic Ocean and plays an important role in determining the global sea level rise and global ocean ”¦ circulation.'

Mernild is conducting the research as part of the University of Alaska's International Polar Year efforts. He was appointed a University of Alaska IPY postdoctoral fellow by UA president Mark Hamilton in 2007.

What is not explicitly mentioned here (but briefly mentioned in passing) is that this increase in runoff will cause increased freshening of the North Atlantic Ocean, rendering it less dense, which could have serious negative consequences for the thermohaline-driven oceanic circulation that distributes heat from the equatorial regions to the higher latitudes.

Bundle up, northern Europe! I'm sure Gazprom will sell you all the natural gas you can burn in 2100.

6a00d8341bf80a53ef00e551febb618834-800wi

Not good news - not at all.

Happy Father's Day 

June 07, 2008

The Pacific Northwest as a Water Farm: Gordon Grant Responds

My colleague Gordon Grant has requested space to respond to my earlier posts in which I cited his work on water development from the Cascades volcanics. His post will make more sense if you first read this previous post.

Feel free to leave a comment.

Note: if you click on Gordon's name above, you will be escorted to his group's (Watershed Processes Group) homepage, where you can download a couple of papers describing relevant WPG work: 1) the "Running Dry..." paper; and 2) the "Deep groundwater..." paper by Tague et al. 

********************

Mike:
I'm writing to you directly rather than posting to your blog because I wanted to respond off-record to your comments. But in the interests of broadening the discussion, as indicated below, I would appreciate it if you would condsider posting this as a reply rather than a comment, so that it is seen by others who read WaterWired.

First, thanks for bringing the issue that appeared in your blog forward...it's one that, in my view, deserves discussion on a much broader front. But I have to confess that I really don't understand your point. My vision for the future is not about pipes, although given the way California is plumbed and the long legs of the fantasy of diverting the Columbia, that's not outside the realm of possibility either. Although I think the reporter gave some ideas a little more body English than I would have, starting with the title of the piece, I basically stand by the story.  

From your comments I get the sense that you interpreted this story as some sort of advocacy on my part for how California could solve its water problems by taking the Pacific Northwest's water. That is not at all my intent. By way of context, both this and the prior story that appeared in the Bend Bulletin came about because I was contacted by reporters after they heard or read of our work - I'm not out selling this to the newspapers. Instead, my comments were intended to focus attention on where water comes from now, and how those places are likely to become increasingly important in a climate-warmed and water-challenged future. The importance of the youngest parts of the Cascade volcanic arc as sources of deep groundwater and persistent summer streamflows, whether in N. CA (Pitt, Hat, and Fall Ck), So. OR (Klamath, Rogue) or the central Cascades (McKenzie, Willamette, Deschutes) seems clear to me and I disagree that it is premature to say this - the technical papers describing this (and not just our group's) are already in the refereed literature. The implications of this geography of water for long-term supply and demand are less clear, but I also maintain that now is the time to begin the discussion of what this geography of water means for the region - and it is IS a regional and not just a state issue. 

I am not suggesting that we give or sell water to California - for one thing there is currently no infrastructure that would allow this to happen, and the legal and water rights issues are huge. Moreover, I'm certainly not trying to be an alarmist ("the Californians are coming for our water!"). But as recent events both in the Southeast and Southwest US, southern Spain (see this week's NY Times) and many other places suggest, demand for water under conditions of scarcity is a serious social, political, and economic problem that is likely to only get worse in the future. I do believe that in a water-challenged world, water will come to people or people will come to water. I don't pretend to know which way things will go, but I do know if the climate changes, that question will need to be answered. That's not an advocacy position for mining the volcanic aquifer (as your previous post seemed to imply I was suggesting) or anything else - the implications for people, institutions, aquifers, and ecosystems are very complex and no one has sorted them out. The answer will be driven by economics, politics, and geography (not necessarily in that order) and constrained by laws, which are themselves changeable. The laws governing water rights and inter-state transfers are formidable, but not immutable - just imagine where the political center of gravity would be after 5+ years of serious drought in the Southwest. 

My point here is not to scare people with bogeymen, but to help people understand and appreciate the enormous value of water, particularly that coming from the wilderness areas and National Forest lands along the Cascade crest. We've been invoking that value for years, but it's mostly been promulgated as nice environmental rhetoric. I happen to think it's more than rhetoric, and possibly the best example we have of "ecosystem services". Helping people understand the value of high quality water resources that have largely been viewed as free for the taking is not going to be easy but I think you and I agree that it's an important goal.

I'm eager to continue this discussion, and open to the suggestion that this may come across as more alarmist that I intend - but I basically think the story is valid. And I think than an excellent role for IWW would be to help sponsor a colloquium where these ideas can be developed and exchanged. We've talked about this in the past, but perhaps with growing public interest and attention to these issues (i.e., Schwarzenegger just declared drought in California), we should move this forward.

Gordon

June 05, 2008

USDA Climate Change Report: Thin on Ground Water

The USDA Climate Change Report (Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.3) hit the streets a few weeks ago. The report examines effects of climate change on: Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity.

I've gone through the entire report in a cursory manner but focused on the Water Resources (Chapter 4) component. The authors of that chapter did a good job, emphasizing surface water quantity, with less emphasis on water quality. There is very little on ground water - it merits a couple of pages towards the end of the chapter. Far too little. Granted, much less has been done on the effects of climate change on subsurface water than on surface water but I think the authors could have worked harder to find and include more material. The authors are a strong group, but none is a ground water hydrologist and I saw no other ground water types listed among the other authors.

I remember working on aspects of climate change in the Great Basin carbonate aquifer systems in the 1980s - we just didn't call it 'climate change'. If I did it, you can bet others did it too.

The authors correctly noted that our monitoring systems are not well-designed to detect climate change or its effects on water resources. Not a good thing.

But I can't fault the authors too much because that is a common theme among climate change research these days: ground water is given short shrift. I remember observing presentations at the Third World Water Forum in Kyoto five years ago. Presentation after presentation detailed the effects of simulated climate change with nary a mention of ground water. I finally managed to get recognized and asked about this neglect. The speaker was silent for a few seconds, looked at his co-author, then sputtered, "We assumed that it was included in streamflow, as baseflow."

Sounds like what the WATERS folks told me a few months ago when I complained about the lack of ground water in their document: ground water is important in that it provides baseflow.

I like to think of myself as a "hydrologist", not just a "ground water hydrologist", and try to view the water realm in terms of how it all fits together. But I find myself wondering if our hydrologic training omits the largest global stock of liquid fresh water in its curriculum.

"Some national parks have long waiting lists for camping reservations. When you have to wait a year to sleep next to a tree, something is wrong." -- George Carlin       

June 04, 2008

Will the Pacific Northwest Become a Water Farm?

Last week I received a call from one of our legislative liaisons who told me he would forward me an email inquiring about selling Oregon water in the international market. "Uh-huh," I thought. I received the email, in which the author, a prominent Oregonian, speculated that if Oregon could annually sell 1 MAF of its water, presumably taken from the mighty Columbia River, for the paltry sum of 1 cent per gallon, that would generate about $3.26B annually for Oregon's coffers.

For a state with limited financial resources, that's quite a sum.  Our legislative person asked if he could supply my name and email to the individual, and I said "Sure". Haven't heard anything yet.

I said to no one in particular, "Why sell our water on the international market? Just sell it to Las Vegas." But I also thought, "Oh boy, it's happening. It's coming back - the Pacific Northwest as 'water farm.' " As Yogi Berra reputedly said, "It's like deja-vu all over again."

Then yesterday, colleague Lisa Gaines sent me this article by Alex Breitler that appeared in the 1 June 2008 Stockton Record. The title was provocative: Northwest may hold secret to water woes. It detailed a California talk given by one of my colleagues, hydrologist Gordon Grant, about whom I posted last fall. It's his pitch that the ground water of the Pacific Northwest may supply the parched Californians and other Westerners as temperatures rise.

In the article below, the material in italics is from the article; the non-italicized material is mine. 

Map_cascade_range In a few days, most rivers and streams draining from the Sierra Nevada will have peaked for the season, channeling snowmelt from the granite-specked highlands to reservoirs, the ocean, your kitchen tap.

The melt came early this year. Just like last year.

Climate change threatens California's longtime reliance on the spiny Sierra for most of its water, experts agree.

And that, one scientist says, is likely to increase interest in a more reliable source: the porous lava flows of the Cascade Range in Oregon and Washington, which hide away enough water to cover California in a pool 3 inches deep.

So? Lake Tahoe holds enough water to cover California to a depth of 14 inches. Should we drain the lake?

As water supplies tighten in coming decades, the Northwest's groundwater surplus is likely to garner new attention from around the western United States, said Gordon Grant, a hydrologist for the U.S. Forest Service in Corvallis, Ore. Grant presented his research earlier this spring to fisheries experts gathered for a conference in Lodi.

"It is almost inevitable that the areas that store large quantities of groundwater will become increasingly looked at to provide water," Grant said.

As early as the mid-1960s there was talk in California of tapping the Pacific Northwest by diverting the Columbia River and pumping flows south through a massive system of canals, tunneling through mountain ranges on the way to Los Angeles..

The original proposal died in 1968, was resurrected in the early 1990s but ultimately was not politically viable. Even if it had been, officials at the time said, conserving water and allowing farmland to lie fallow would be far cheaper than building an extensive network of canals.

Yeah, I remember hearing my professors at the University of Arizona talk about this in the early 1970s. I also remember the NAWAPA project. More recently, I heard about the NARA project (see this post, too)

Today, California is occupied with figuring out how to convey water within its own boundaries, including whether to build a canal around the Delta to feed freshwater to other regions.

But climate change is looming.

The Cascades hold up to seven times more water underground than the range stores in its snowpack each year, Grant said. That's enough groundwater to fill Utah's Great Salt Lake.

Again - so?

Snowflakes melt and trickle into the ground, emerging perhaps several decades later in lush forested springs. For this reason, waterways there flow steadily even late into the summer.

On the other hand, snow drains off the rocky Sierra Nevada like water off a grocery store parking lot. Frank Gehrke, who coordinates measurements of California's snowpack each winter for the state Department of Water Resources, said there is some groundwater storage in parts of the range, but not nearly enough to cancel out the loss of snowpack as temperatures warm.

The Sierra are granitic, whereas the Cascades are volcanic (mostly basalt). In general, basalts possess far more permeability and storage than granitic rocks.

As a result, rivers and streams begin to dry up earlier in the summer.

California does benefit from groundwater toward the southern end of the Cascades, including spring-fed rivers that drain into the Sacramento River.

"At a minimum, the value of those rivers will only increase," Grant said.

Water may eventually become the most valuable product harvested from national forest lands, he said. This could mean changes in demographics - where people live and work.

"If you project forward into a climate-warm world, the places where water is available, particularly in the late summer, those places are going to be disproportionately attractive to human beings," Grant said.

Exactly how that's going to play out, he said, he doesn't know.

In the post last October, I gave my opinion of Dr. Grant's premise. It's premature to make such statements, given our lack of knowledge of the volcanic ground water systems in the Cascades. For one thing, it's more than just a matter of permeability and porosity. We need to know the large-scale storage properties, the recoverability of the ground water, and the effects of withdrawals on hydrologic systems and ecosystems.

It's tempting to say that there is a lot of available ground water beneath the Cascades, but we just don't know at this point.

“Life does not consist mainly, or even largely, of facts and happenings. It consists of the storm of thoughts that is forever blowing through one’s head.” – Mark Twain 

June 01, 2008

Is the Atmosphere a Public Trust?

It's June in Oregon's Willamette Valley. Here's hoping that summer is finally en route and that the "bug" I brought back from the South Caucasus seems to be exiting my system. It was not a smart idea to watch The Andromeda Strain on A&E last night.

Back to the question posed in the title. In this country we treat the nation's air and waters as public trusts. What that means is that no one owns them, but the government holds them in trust for the public and acts to protect them. The public trust concept apparently goes back a few thousand years and is the basis for the Clean Water Act and the Clean Water Act. The government, acting in behalf of the public's interests, passes and enforces laws to keep the air and water clean.

Many states administer their waters, in terms of allocation and quality, as a public trust.

So could the atmosphere be treated as a public trust to the extent that we could force the government to act in the public's interest and reduce GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions?

Mary Wood, a professor at the University of Oregon School of Law, thinks that the public trust doctrine can be used in just that fashion: the force the government to protect the climate natural resource.

She's been developing that concept for over a year, and even has a forthcoming book (with Heather A. Brinton), The Dawn of Planetary Patriotism: A Citizens' Call to Climate Defense, describing the approach.

Here is an interview from the High Country News last month:

Download hcn12may2008_climate_revolutionary.pdf

Read this story about Professor Wood in the 1 June 2008 issue of the Corvallis Gazette-Times.

Again, the public trust doctrine as applied to the atmosphere has not yet been used in a lawsuit. Some feel this will be a real useful approach; others feel that it will produce a spate of frivolous and nuisance lawsuits.

My take: I applaud Professor Wood for her brilliance and creativity and hope that the mere threat of many lawsuits will "encourage" the Federal government to take decisive action to mitigate global warming. But there is also the risk that courts will wind up formulating climate policy, a dismal approach at best. 

As trial lawyers will tell you, sometimes the best path to mediation or arbitration is the threat of litigation. 

“He lives in L.A., which stands for 'Limited Attention.' ” – Mitch Albom, referring to Kobe Bryant

May 09, 2008

China, Tibet, and Water

The Tibetan Plateau, source to great rivers (Brahmaputra, Ganges, Yellow, Yangtze, Indus, Irrawaddy, Mekong) in whose basins live well over 2 billion people, may be at the heart of the China-Tibet "debate".

Why? Water, that's why.

TopogrphThe region (shown in red), at 2.5 million square kilometers about four times the size of Texas, covers almost 2% of the Earth's land surface. It is the world's biggest plateau, and has an average elevation of almost 15,000 feet (4500 meters). It plays a significant role in the climate of the planet. Its glaciers nourish the aforementioned rivers and others. And it is those glaciers that may be at the heart of China's "interest" in keeping Tibet on a tight leash.

Circle of Blue has an excellent article about the strategic power of water in the China-Tibet debate (thanks to Eric Daigh).

Like many other resources, water is of great concern to China. I've previously posted on China's water issues: Three Gorges Dam; the Great South-to-North water transfer; and the dust-up with Kazakhstan over Lake Balkhash.

The take-away: what with Tibtean Plateau glaciers shrinking because of climate change and China's water development plans, the Indians, Vietnamese, Laotians, Cambodians, Bangladeshis, Burmese, et al. might have cause for concern.

And perhaps the rest of us, too.

"In the world there is nothing more submissive and weak than water. Yet for attacking that which is hard and strong, there is nothing that can surpass it." -- Lao-tze, 6th century BCE

May 01, 2008

Will Global Warming Increase If We Eradicate Malaria?

John Fleck posted this item by Roger Pielke, Jr., and labeled it a "provocative post". Quite an understatement. Pielke posits that eradicating malaria may lead to increased GHG emissions from African nations, where over 3 million people die from the disease each year, and one billion contract it. Sick people are a drag on the economy. It's difficult for them to be productive.

So let's treat people, rid the continent of malaria, and help people escape from poverty. What happens as people start working? The economy grows, and guess what? More GHGs!

Sounds like a recipe for more global warming.

Read Pielke's article. He's not advocating (nor am I) that we refrain from eradicating malaria, but it's a provocative (Draconian?) premise.

As John says:

This is not, of course, to argue against treating malaria. It’s merely another illustration of the tangled relationship between disease, poverty, economics and climate change on a global scale. It’s a really hard problem.

Title05

Recall that on 25 April we observed World Malaria Day.

"Never underestimate how poorly people can treat one another." -- Unknown

April 30, 2008

EPA Climate Change Public Webcast - 8 May

The Office of Water of the EPA will host a public Webcast on 8 May 2008 , 2:30 - 4:30 PM EDT, to discuss and receive feedback on its National Water Program Strategy: Response to Climate Change (available here).

Complete information, including Webcast registration, is available at this WWW site. Registration began on 23 April. You can also submit comments on the Strategy at the same site.

Here's the letter from Benjamin H. Grumbles, Assistant Administrator, announcing the Webcast, along wth additional information:

Download epa_climate_change_webcast.pdf

"The only reason some people get lost in thought is that it's unfamiliar territory." -- Paul Fix

April 28, 2008

Jeffrey Sachs Solves the Water Crisis

9781594201271lWell, maybe not. But the current issue (28 April 2008) of Newsweek features "Rivers Running Dry" and economist Jeffrey D. Sachs' latest book, Common Wealth: Economics for a Crowded Planet. In the piece, Sachs, who is head of Columbia University's Earth Institute, offers some comments on the water crisis and some solutions.

I've not read his book yet. Yes, I will post a review when I finish it.

Wonder what William Easterly would think of it? For those of you who don't know, Sachs and Easterly go back and forth about the best way to "do development". Just Google "Easterly vs. Sachs". I will post on their kerfluffle shortly.

If the article is any indication of what Sachs thinks about water and the solutions we need, then it's nothing new for us Water Wonks. Yeah, things are bad and will probably get worse. But perhaps Sachs' book will convince others - politicians, "regular people", et al. - that action is needed. If it does that, then he's done us all a service.

One thing that the USA needs is a national water policy - not a plan, but a policy.  The American Water Resources Association (AWRA) has been calling for such a policy in its Water Dialogues. [Disclosure notice: I sit on the Board of the AWRA.]The USA muddles along, going from crisis to crisis.

Here is the first paragraph from Jeneen Interlandi's Newsweek article:

Remember last fall when the city of Atlanta was said to be just weeks away from running dry? It's getting warm in the Southeast again, and Lake Lanier, which supplies water to parts of three states (Georgia, Alabama and Florida) is still down 13 feet from where it should be this time of year. Part of the fault lies with the Army Corps of Engineers, which regulates the outflow from the lake down the Chattahoochee River and sent billions of gallons into the Atlantic to protect the endangered sturgeon population, based on a plan that had not been updated since 1989. It also lost an additional 22 billion gallons, owing to a broken gauge. But the bigger problem is the lack of a coherent policy for collecting, conserving and using fresh water there, or in much of the rest of the United States, or, for that matter, the world.

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Here is a recent photo of Lake Lanier, courtesy of Don Mahin.

Here's an interesting snippet from the Newsweek article:

Economists and geologists have identified one culprit in the water-management problem, a mind-set they call "stationarity"—the belief that natural systems fluctuate within a narrow, predictable range, even over long periods. "Stationarity is dead," says Chris Milly, author of a recent Science paper on the issue—done in by population growth, climate change and economic development. But the effect of the stationarity fallacy has been to leave water policy in the hands of relatively shortsighted municipal and state authorities, while the federal government has been looking the other way. [emboldening mine]

That last sentence is pretty brutal. What is meant by "shortsighted"? The few municipal water managers I know in the West are not what I call "shortsighted". In fact, a number of Western municipal water utilities - Seattle and Portland come to mind - have joined to cope with climate change and its effect on water availability. I don't always agree with Pat Mulroy, but I would not accuse her of being shortsighted. Some states are incorporating climate change into their planning efforts. 

Here is a related article from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution about Rep. John Linder (R-GA), one of the founders of the House Water Caucus.  He's trying to establish a National Water Commission.

One group we need to get on board is the business community. Not just the Warren Buffets and his ilk, but others as well - local/regional business leaders. If I tell some politician we need a national water policy, nothing will get done. If Buffet, Bill Gates, or Paul Otellini (Intel CEO) says that, you know the politicos will listen; the state and local politicians will respond to state/local business leaders as well as the national/international ones.

That's where we Water Wonks have failed, by not engaging the business community. Money talks - we all know that.

And business people know that they need water to make money. Sin agua, no hay dinero.

You go, Jeff!

"With great power comes great responsibility." -- Spiderman

April 20, 2008

Yale Hosts Governors' Climate Change Conference, All Four Show Up

So what would you expect if you saw the following at the top of a press release:

U.S. Governors to Gather at Yale for Climate Change Conference

If you're like me, you'd assume that a bunch of governors were going to meet at Yale to have a climate change conference. So what's a "bunch"? 25? 35? All 50?

Try four. That's right, 8% of all U.S. governors.

Yale would have been better off calling this the "Canadian Provincial Premiers' Conference on Climate Change" since 20% (2 out of 10) premiers (Quebec and Manitoba) were slated to attend.

The 'Fantastic Four' included Connecticut Gov. M. Jodi Rell, who had little more to do than to roll out of bed and drive 40 miles down I-91 from Hartford to New Haven. The Governator himself, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, blew in from California, and Illinois Governor Rod Blagojevich and Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius also had no hair stylist appointments on 18 April.

New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine was scheduled to attend, but was a last-minute scratch; he probably heard about the palate-cleansing sorbet served in ice-carved bowls at the opening dinner. Can you spell P-R-E-T-E-N-T-I-O-U-S? 

Oh yeah - five states - New Mexico, New York, Maine, Arizona, and Washington - sent representatives.

Eighteen states signed an important declaration (don't get me started on declarations):

Download Gov-Declaration-20080418.pdf

Here's the official WWW site and the rest of the press release:

New Haven, Conn. On Friday, April 18, U.S. Governors and top environmental officials will meet at Yale University to exchange ideas on how states and the federal government can combat global warming and develop a strategy for future action.

“This is the first time such as prestigious group of state officials have come together to have a serious discussion on climate change,” said Yale University President Richard C. Levin. “We are thrilled to have the opportunity to host such an important event that we hope will represent a significant turning point in how policymakers can work together to address this global challenge.

Governors who plan to attend the event include Arnold Schwarzenegger of California,  Jon Corzine of New Jersey, M. Jodi Rell of Connecticut, Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas and Rod Blagojevich of Illinois.

In addition, Christine Todd Whitman, Quebec Premier Jean Charest, Manitoba Premier Gary Doer and Nobel Laureate Dr. R. K. Pachauri, Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, will participate.

Several of the governors will sign a climate change declaration that will highlight the need for “partnership” between the federal and state government.

Yale has affirmed its commitment to sustainability, especially in reducing the university’s carbon footprint with an initiative to cut its greenhouse gas emissions to 10 percent below the 1990 level by 2020. Yale has already taken steps to improve the energy efficiency of its buildings, use renewable fuels, reduce electricity use, and invest in alternative energy.

Friday’s gathering will also celebrate the centennial of President Theodore Roosevelt’s landmark 1908 Conference of Governors, which launched the modern conservation movement, planted the seed for the National Parks System, and inspired significant state efforts to protect land. The event will celebrate 100 years of state leadership on critical environmental issues, confront the present climate challenge, and set out a vision of a federal-state partnership for future action.

“Roosevelt showed remarkable foresight a century ago in engaging the states’ chief executive officers to preserve and protect the nation’s natural resources,” said Levin. “Now, we face a new and critical challenge—global climate change—and leadership in the United States is coming from visionary state governors.”

Top environmental officials? Who? Christine Todd Whitman is a former top official. Yes, there were a few state environmental officials in attendance. And it was probably hard to discuss Federal-state partnerships without any Federal officials present.

Oh, I forgot - Scott Pelley of 60 Minutes was a moderator.

The end of the press release:

The 2008 Conference of Governors is jointly hosted by the Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy, the Yale Project on Climate Change, the Center for Business and the Environment at Yale, the Yale Office of Sustainability, and the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies.

Funding for the conference and its associated outreach materials was generously provided by the Betsy and Jesse Fink Foundation, the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, the Emily Hall Tremaine Foundation, the Energy Foundation, the 11th Hour Project, and the Oscar M. Ruebhausen Fund.

The money and carbon expended on this conference could have been much better spent. What did this accomplish? It certainly was not a 'Governors' Conference'.

And they should have let the graduate students run the show, like they did for the large dams conference.

This conference was more about Yale than anything else. Nice try, guys. Can you spell D-I-S-I-N-G-E-N-U-O-U-S?

"He who gives himself airs of importance, exhibits the credentials of impotence." -- Johann Lavater

April 19, 2008

Southern Ocean Lighter? Are We SOL?

From way down south, David Fogarty of Reuters brings us yet another uplifting climate change story - this time about the freshening of the deep waters of the Southern Ocean. Yeah, they're getting less dense (lighter).

So?

Well, if they get too fresh, it's possible part of the oceanic thermohaline circulation could weaken or shut down entirely. This would not be good, as this circulation serves to transfer heat from the tropics to the higher latitudes. Because of it, the north Atlantic region (especially northern Europe) does not have the same frigid winters as does Siberia, and has average temperatures up to 5 degrees C higher than they should be. 

Here's a short article from 2003 by Robert B. Gagosian of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) about the possibility of abrupt climate change due to circulation changes in the world's oceans.

Ocean_circulation_conveyor_belt

Last May I posted an item about the freshening of the North Atlantic Ocean, and also posted a DoD-funded report by Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall about the climatic change and social upheaval such an event would cause. It's a short report (< 30 pages) but if you don't want to read it, let me summarize it thusly: We're SOL.

From The Reuters article:

Voyage leader Steve Rintoul said his team found that salty, dense water that sinks near the edge of Antarctica to the bottom of the ocean about 5 km (3 miles) down was becoming fresher and more buoyant.

So-called Antarctic bottom water helps power the great ocean conveyor belt, a system of currents spanning the Southern, Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Oceans that shifts heat around the globe.

"The main reason we're paying attention to this is because it is one of the switches in the climate system and we need to know if we are about to flip that switch or not," said Rintoul of Australia's government-backed research arm the CSIRO.

"If that freshening trend continues for long enough, eventually the water near Antarctica would be too light, too buoyant to sink and that limb of the global-scale circulation would shut down," he said on Friday.

Cold, salty water also sinks to the depths in the far north Atlantic Ocean near Greenland and, together with the vast amount of water that sinks off Antarctica, this drives the ocean conveyor belt.

This system brings warm water into the far north Atlantic, making Europe warmer than it would otherwise be, and also drives the large flow of upper ocean water from the tropical Pacific to the Indian Ocean through the Indonesia Archipelago.

If these currents were to slow or stop, the world's climate would eventually be thrown into chaos.

"We don't see any evidence yet that the amount of bottom water that's sinking has declined. But by becoming fresher and less dense it's moving in the direction of an ultimate shutdown."

What's disturbing about this story is that there is now evidence that deep water freshening is occurring in the southern latitudes, too.  Freshening will be exacerbated by the melting of ice in the polar regions. So although global warming may be the ultimate culprit, it will produce colder temperatures in the north Atlantic region but warmer temperatures (and likely droughts) in the African equatorial regions.

Let me put in a word for the Schwartz-Randall report: whether you like it or not, it's the kind of study - "thinking about the unthinkable" - that needs to be done. I have inquired about the existence such a study on the potential desiccation of the Southwest USA and its ramifications but have been unable to ascertain who, if anyone, is looking at various scenarios. I suspect there are some people doing this kind of work somewhere, even if it's in the bowels of the Pentagon.

It's not the kind of work a lot of people would want to see publicized.

"Some cause happiness wherever they go; others, whenever they go." -- Oscar Wilde

April 15, 2008

Adaptation vs. Mitigation: Another Agenda?

I have to admit that I have not kept up on the "adaptation vs. mitigation" debate vis-a-vis climate change. But a few days I caught John Fleck's (enjoy the PNW, John!) Inkstain blog where he cites a blog post by Roger Pielke, Jr., on the following:

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