So let's look at what's happening vis-a-vis Copenhagen.
Patrik Jonsson reports in the Christian Science Monitor that 'Climategate' dogs global warming debate.
Jonsson writes:
The “Climategate” documents spurred Sen. James Inhofe (R) of Oklahoma, a vocal skeptic, and other congressional Republicans to begin a probe into the findings of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and whether contradictory data was suppressed in the research. Reports from the UN agency are the primary basis for US policy direction on climate change, including new Environmental Protection Agency rules and proposed legislation to curb carbon dioxide emissions in the US.
“The furor over these documents is not about tone, colloquialisms or whether climatologists are nice people,” writes the business-friendly Wall Street Journal. “The real issue is what the messages say about the way the much-ballyhooed scientific consensus on global warming was arrived at, and how a single view of warming and its causes is being enforced. The impression left … is that the climate-tracking game has been rigged from the start.
The chairman of the IPCC, Rajendra Pachauri, stood by his panel’s 2007 findings last week. That study is the foundation for a global climate response, including carbon emission targets proposed this week by both the US and China.
So far, climate scientists say nothing in the leaked emails takes away from the fact that the climate change evidence is solid. In fact, a new study in the journal Science shows the polar ice cap melting is happening at a faster rate than predicted just a few years ago.
In a teleconference call with reporters this week, one of the scientists whose emails were leaked, Pennsylvania State University paleoclimatologist Michael Mann, said that “regardless of how cherry-picked” the emails are, there is “absolutely nothing in any of the emails that calls into the question the deep level of consensus of climate change.”
If you think 'Climategate' is about climate, read what Daniel Collins says:
“Climategate” is not about climate. The scandal is about divisive politics, how partisans will stoop to illegal and intimidatory means to propagate their value system, and how other partisans implicitly or explicitly support the theft and invasion of privacy.
And here is Nicholas Stern in The Guardian:
The two defining challenges of our century are managing climate change and overcoming poverty. And if we fail on one we will fail on the other. So the world faces a stark choice at the United Nations climate change conference in Copenhagen.
Do we collaborate and act to reach a strong political agreement that both decisively cuts the devastating risks posed by climate change, and rapidly opens up the opportunities offered by low-carbon economic growth? Do we in that way set ourselves to overcome poverty and promote prosperity? Or, do we give way to narrow, short-term interests, quarrelling, lack of ambition and delay, thus allowing the risks to the climate to grow to dangerous levels which will derail development in both rich and poor countries?
And George Monbiot in the same paper:
"To be truly radical," Raymond Williams wrote, "is to make hope possible rather than despair convincing".
Believe me I'm trying, but at the moment hope is hard to come by.
A legally binding deal cannot now be struck at Copenhagen. The best that can happen is an outline agreement, which is firmed up next year. Even this would depend on the compliance of the US Senate. So far it has been hostile towards anything resembling an effective deal. As I write, Barack Obama still hasn't proposed a number for US emissions cuts. He can't make any firm commitment until the Senate sings, and the Senate won't approve a climate change bill until the spring, if at all. I concentrate on the role of the US not because it is the only obstacle to a strong climate agreement (you should see what Canada has been up to) but because it has so far done more than any other nation to prevent global action from taking place. The Kyoto negotiations in 1997 were comprehensively trashed by a US delegation led by Al Gore.
Lest I leave you on a pessimistic note, a European colleague of mine sent me this note regarding water and Copenhagen:
(1) ...water was back in the text again (have not seen a press release about that) and (2) policy makers attending the same meeting did not really worry about water being in the negotiation text, as what is mentioned about adaptation in the text leaves a lot of space for actions in the water area.
Neither my colleague nor I has seen any official notification of this inclusion.
Regarding water and Copenhagen, read James G. Workman's excellent Op-Ed in the Los Angeles Times.
Okay!
And God bless the Dutch (forget what I said the other day):
Bye for now.
"All diplomacy is local." -- a U.S. State Department official

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