Apocalypse When?

In December 2007 I posted an item, Water: Apocalypse Now...or Later?.  Here's how I began:

I have occasionally mumbled to some fellow WaterWonks that I would love to see an analysis of what might happen were the Southwest USA to go dry. So far, I know of no one undertaking such a task, although I'm sure that someone, somewhere, is cranking away.

You might want to check out some of the links in the post. The cartoon is by Michael Sieron from Reader's Digest.

When I would mention my Diogenes-like search to people I would often get strange looks. The looks would become even stranger when I explained that I was curious as to what would happen should a massive depopulation of the Southwest USA occur because of desiccation occur. The effects would propagate beyond the Southwest and would have implications for the national economy, civil strife, climate refugees, etc. Things could really get ugly.  

I made a few suggestions to editors and conference conveners for special issues and sessions with no results (mainly because of my inability to pursue these issues). 

In January 2009 in the first part of a three-part review of James Lawrence Powell's Dead Pool I reported on my quest, which had not produced any results. What was interesting about that post was a frightening passage from the book about Phoenix in the process of drying up and blowing away en route to becoming a 'ghost metropolis.'

So why revisit this material now? A week or so ago John Fleck forwarded a link to Jon Talton's article, Water and Arizona's Future. Talton, a native Arizonan now living in Seattle (climate refugee?), takes his native state, especially the Phoenix area, to the proverbial woodshed for its unsustainable growth and water policies that promote unbridled growth despite an uncertain water future:

The state can't sustain double-digit percentage population increases every decade, particularly in subdivisions apart from historic urban footprints. This statement is anathema to the Real Estate Industrial Complex and what passes for an "economy" that Arizonans keep looking to resuscitate. But wait... In reality, Arizona probably doesn't have the water to support its current population for long. Beyond these basics, it's all over but the shouting.

Talton lists a series of draconian ('Klingonian' might be a better descriptor) measures that Arizona should take to get its water-growth house in order. As Fleck himself notes in his excellent post about Talton's article, Talton knows these solutions are not going to happen short of his return to Phoenix as Arizona's water czar:

My solutions? 1) Stop all exurban development; 2) Stop all development outside the real urban footprints of cities and towns — that means no more Pinal or Buckeye sprawl; 3) Shrink the state's population through taxes, "anti-business" regulations and whatever other creative solution someone can reach (the heat may do this anyway); 4) Price water extremely high outside the SRP footprint and a few other quasi-sustainable areas; 5) Start to return much of metro Phoenix's fringes to natural desert — yes, tear down the crap; 6) Get a real handle on the state's water resources, based on science, not the venal appetite of the Growth Machine; 7) Fill in the old SRP footprint with high-quality dense development that includes plenty of shade tree and grass oases but also building based on Spanish and Moorish models rather than American tract houses with large expanses out front; also, with much less pavement 8) Tax the fringe areas to encourage migration either out of state or into the dense SRP footprint or other such areas. 9) Shut down any golf course built after 1970; 10) Have statewide, airtight water regulations. Not the least impediment to realizing these solutions would be building an economy based on more than sprawl. So...no chance.

You could add one more, similar to #3 abvove, to this list: provide financial or other incentives to people willing to move from Arizona (or Nevada,, New Mexico, etc.)  to 'rustbelt' cities that have been losing population for years. Who would fund those incentives? Duhhh...Might be cheaper than funding another unsustainable water project. [Aside: Here is an article from the 22 July 2007 Toronto Star speculating that climate change may trigger a depopulation of the USA Southwest to the benefit of 'rustbelt' cities.]  

Speaking of water projects to water the Southwest, the map below is the western route of the so-called North American Recycling Alliance (NARA), a proposed scheme to bring water from Canada's James Bay to the USA. There is also the old North American Water and Power Alliance (NAWAPA) proposal that died in the 197os but may be making the rounds again.

Fleck does not believe that Powell's apocalyptic vision of Phoenix sinking into its own ashes will not come to fruition. I am not as convinced. But he does not correctly note that we do not have the [political and] institutional framework to deal with these daunting water problems. I have no workable solutions, and neither does Fleck, but he's thinking about them.

Here is what we do need soon: an honest, realistic, discusssion from our politicians and water managers about future options. For reasons that I don't need to enumerate, that's not going to happen soon ["No policy without a calamity." -- Dutch saying], although Pat Mulroy seems to be coming close. But as long as there is a planning official in a Maricopa County (greater Phoenix) community saying [according to a colleague] that 'water supplies are not a limiting factor in growth' then you know we are long way from hearing what needs to be heard.

I am reminded of a comment made by a colleague, a Federal scientist who works in climate chnage and drought, about six years ago. He disparaged the willingness of Western governors to go to DC with their hands outstretched, begging for drought relief, then returning home to continue parroting the 'more growth' mantra to keep the home front happy.

Read both Fleck's andTalton's provocative posts and the comments; Fleck also has a very good companion post.

John will keep looking for a workable political and institutional framework. I'll keep searching for Cassandra.

"Water is the classic common property resource. No one really owns the problem. Therefore, no one really owns the solution.” - Ban Ki-moon, quoted in Grafton et al. (thanks to John Fleck)

Comments

[Michael Campana]

Dear dfb,

Thanks for your comment.

Very good point about learning from Australia, especially the Murray-Darling river basin and the city of Perth's radical change in its approach to conservation and water management. My understanding is that the Southwest USA's drought is about as bad as the one in Australia.

Some have suggested using the Murray-Darling river basin, Australia's most important, as a model for the Colorado basin. There are several important differences: 1) the Australian Federal government is much stronger vis-a-vis the states than is the US Federal governmnet; 2) Australia does not grant water rights, but licences. These are valid for a certain period of time, must be renewed, and can be revoked for cause at any time; 3) Australia's states have referred much of their authority over water to the Federal government.

So although we can learn some things from the Aussies about coping with extreme drought, the institutional framework in Australia is much better suited (in the sense that drastic decisions can be made quickly) towards dealing with such a situation.

See Professor Jennifer McKay's comments at:

http://aquadoc.typepad.com/waterwired/2010/06/index.html

[Michael Campana]

Hey, Mike.

Good to hear from you.

I forgot to add the link to NARA, the North American Recycling Alliance:

http://aquadoc.typepad.com/waterwired/2008/03/canada-to-usa-w.html

See also NAWAPA, the North American Water and Power Alliance:

http://aquadoc.typepad.com/waterwired/2008/01/kennedy-to-cana.html

I have added these to the post. Thanks for commenting.

[MIke Langston]

What is the source of the map you have embedded in the lower portion of this post? It has NARA on it and seems to be be showing proposed interstate water transfers. My google search for it turned up nothing.

[dfb]

Would it be better ask what would happen if the American Southwest experienced a drought similar to what Australia recently has experienced? That way, people have a real-life experience to compare with? Or are you thinking of an even worse drought scenario?