Why We Won't Abandon Phoenix, or Albuquerque, or....Kingman?

Sorry to keep beating a dead horse (or city) but it's no fun picking on Las Vegas these days, what with Pat Mulroy sounding as though she's found religion and wants to cooperate with everyone in sight.

John Fleck had a post the other day, Why I Don't Think We'll Abandon Phoenix, in which he presented a graph from the USBR (Dr. Terry Fulp) showing the 10-year running average Colorado River basin water supply (top) and use (bottom).

He notes that if the curves continue inexorably in their current directions, one can imagine Phoenix drying up and blowing away.

But wait! He continues:

As I explained over in the comments at Michael’s, here is why I think that is not likely to happen, and what interests me about the current discussion of alternative paths forward.

If one quantifies all the water there is available to the lower basin states, and looks at how that water is now being used, one can a number of solutions short of shutting Phoenix (or Las Vegas, Nev., or Albuquerque) down. We know, for example, that Phoenix could consume far less water per capita. There could be a major shift of water from ag to urban users in Arizona and the rest of the West. We could pursue coastal desalination, freeing up Colorado River water. These things are all too expensive and/or politically painful now to contemplate, but they are far less expensive and politically painful than abandoning Phoenix etc. There will reach a crossover point on my hypothetical cost/pain curve where these solutions, or steps like them, will be implemented.

Perhaps he's right. In any case, we won't abandon Phoenix or any other Southwest city; nature and humanity will just run their courses.  

Last item: read his post about the Imperial Irrigation District and Colorado River water.

As for Kingman - we cannot let the childhood home of Andy Devine wither and die. You just gotta draw a line in the sand somewhere.

“Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about things that matter.” ~- Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr.

Comments

[Tim]

It's not a binary toggle; there will always be a Phoenix et al. But I wonder what will happen when growth can't be sustained any longer. What would a steady-state Phoenix look like? My guess is that it would be preceded by a lot of shrinkage. The same mobility that facilitated its rapid growth might be reversible. But Arizona's politicians will do everything they can to prevent that, so there are sure to be some "interesting times" ahead.

[John Fleck]

Michael -

Thanks for the linkage. I just realized that the genesis for my post, which started out as a comment on your last post on this topic, never made it onto your blog. I must have hit "preview" instead of "post". Whatever, thanks for hosting the inspiration....

[PAUL F MILLER]

Why We Won't Abandon Phoenix, or Albuquerque, or....Kingman? ... I write as the area between Las Vegas, Kingman and Phoenix has for the past 67 years been my back yard and WATER is, or should be precious to each of them and sadly especially for Phoenix and Las Vegas WATER is nothing more than a commodity.

We ... that's people ... may not choose to abandon these area, but WATER may cease to be as abundant as it appears to be today. Of the three areas noted, I live in Phoenix and find it fundamentally laughable that our STATE ... ARIZONA does not have a state-wide mandate water conservation program. Various cities and towns have very active water conservation programs, while Phoenix the largest metro area in Arizona is without any such impediment.

Corporate interest$ are sufficiently strong enough in Arizona to get those masquerading as our 90 state legislators to put into place whatever form of water policy best suits their bottom line. Water is, thanks to our state and federal politicians nothing more than a commodity and we are fast approaching the point where if you can't pay, you won't drink or use their water.

History appears to suggest that we are indeed foolish not to evaluate the sustainable volumes in the Colorado River against the current and expect demand. During my life to date, the average volume in the Colorado River has been decreasing and yet legal battles persist over "phantom" water allocation which are not remotely attainable.

We may not abandon these cities, but we just might get damn thirsty...?