Since I just learned of the Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO) and I seem to be on a Central Asian tear these days, here's a brief 2011 FMSO report by Matthew Stein that caught my eye: Conflict over Water Related Resources in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan and Its Impact on Local Security.
Download FMSO_Conflict_Over_Resources_Uzbek
Abstract (First Paragraph)
Water has recently been the focus of an international dispute between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan over the building of the Roghun Dam. If Uzbekistan perceives this as a threat to its security, then it could take military action to ensure water supply; this could result in an international conflict. This would be the third conflict in U.S. Central Command’s (CENTCOM) area of operations. Equally important, and less considered, is the possibility that water could cause domestic conflict in these countries. Water in Central Asia should not be looked at as a resource alone, but rather a catalyst and driver of local economies. Access to and control over economic resources, not solely access to water, is often at the core of ethnic, religious, and other types of conflict in post-Soviet Central Asia. Certain groups, with an ethnic or extremist slant, exhort the population in this region to violence, especially those people disaffected by a lack of access to resources. Examples of this range from the Civil War in Tajikistan from 1992-1997, the May 2005 clash between government forces and extremists in Andijan, Uzbekistan, and even several conflicts in Kyrgyzstan.
A domestic conflict would destabilize Uzbekistan and Tajikistan and have serious consequences on U.S. military efforts in Afghanistan. Central Asian countries, particularly Uzbekistan, have historically closed their borders during periods of unrest. Kazakhstan closed its border with Kyrgyzstan for a month following the April 2010 revolution in Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan did the same with Kyrgyzstan during the June 2010 violence there. Any disturbance will likely disrupt regional transportation networks and hinder logistics on the Northern Distribution Network (NDN). The main line, primarily rail, of this logistics network starts in Latvia and runs through Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan into Afghanistan. An estimated 40 percent of U.S. and coalition non-lethal supplies are now transiting this network and supplies are purchased along the route when possible. These supplies include construction materials and basic necessities, such as food and water. This network will continue to be an important supply line for U.S. and coalition forces in Afghanistan.
Here is a more recent (August 2015) article on the dam and Uzbekistan's reaction (see today's quote).
Interesting to see how this all plays out...Things are fluid, to say the least.
Enjoy!
“Uzbekistan never, and under no circumstances, will provide support to this project.” - statement from Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 1 August 2015
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